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Hello, everyone. Today is March 25th,
and this is our session number 12 of the

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Wyckoff Trading Course.

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I have a lot of busy stuff here on the
first slide. I don't like this.

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I will redo this next time. It just
doesn't look that great, but bear with

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here.

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So I've seen a lot of you started
registering for the Wyckoff Practicum

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and there was a question last week
regarding the price.

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I messed up a little bit, to be frank,
guys.

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So I came back to my team, and I asked
them this question, and they corrected

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me. So for the alumni

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to take Wyckoff Trading Course, and
those of you

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who wanted to do this have already done
so. So it's $4 .98.

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minus $100 rebate, which was before
March 20th, $398.

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And then the practicum is actually the
regular price that we have, which is,

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I believe, let's see, I don't know those

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prices by heart. I apologize. Hold on a
second. Let me just double check even

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for myself.

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Yes. That's what I thought. Yeah, so the
price is already $3 .98.

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That was my confusion. So the price was
the same with that discount. So it's $3

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.98 for the practicum. That's the price
for nine sessions. So just register at

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that price.

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Oh, hold on a second. This is for
alumni.

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Oh, I'm confusing you again, guys. I'm
so sorry.

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Okay, let's start again. So if you want
to register for the practicum, 5 .98 for

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nine sessions.

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That's what it is.

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And then the question was from the
practicum alumni.

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They have the price of 3 .98.

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So that's it.

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But if you feel like I've confused you,
come back to me and just say like, oh, I

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heard this price.

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I will honor that.

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So in any way, the knowledge is more
important than the money, so just

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and I'll honor any price that you heard
of from me in the previous

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session. Okay, next.

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This is the question. Will the practicum
be offered later this year, or is the

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April -June timeframe the only one
you're given?

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In September, we will have the last
practicum course.

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And then we're going to switch into
Wyckoff Trading Course Part 1 and

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Trading Course Part 2. That's how it's
going to be for the beginning of

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September. But yes, in September, the
last practicum cycle will start.

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So you could do it either in summer or
in fall.

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Then the next, well, this is just a
comment. It's just a comment. Okay,

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You can read those guys by yourselves.

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Next session, April 1st. And let's just
see what we're going to

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study. So today, so this is session
number 13.

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Yes, but this is on April 1st. So today
we're finishing volume and price

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analysis, and then we're going to go
into comparative and relative analysis.

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This is going to be a big deal today.

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First, we're going to finish that XSS,
and I'm going to go myself. I'm going to

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go really fast.

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So for those of you who are listening,
on the video you have

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to stop, just kind of take notes, think
about it,

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start again. For those of you in the
live class, if you have a question, you

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have to communicate that question right
away as I'm going to go fast.

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But we will be done with the group
exercise today. That's our priority

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one. And then we'll jump into that
comparative and relative analysis.

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We'll talk about this. I'll have a
homework for you on that, which is going

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be a lot of fun because we're going to
combine comparative and price analysis.

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And all of the studies today are going
to be with Home Depot.

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And then session number 13, we'll
continue our comparative relative

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conversation, and we will look at the
top -bottom approach filtering.

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This is where you look at the market,
then you look at the sectors, you look

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the groups, you look at the stocks.

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And then we'll talk about some other
ways of how we could get the information

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for our selection process.

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And there will be some homework on that
as well.

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All right.

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Okay.

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So I think that we've addressed all of
the questions.

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And now let's jump into our exercise.

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So this is probably only one time today
when we're going to go through the

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exercise, and I'm going to ask you a
question as a homework question as to

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do you guys think is going to happen
next?

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What is the next short -term bias?

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And have you thought about a long -term
bias as well? So let's do this

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first.

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What do you think is going to happen
short term? That's number one. What's

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bias short term?

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Bullish or bearish?

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Are we in the sign of weakness or are we
in the spring shakeout situation?

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Okay, I see some answers are coming in.
I want more.

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Let's see more.

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What do you guys think short -term is
going to happen here?

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Okay.

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Okay. All right.

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So we kind of maybe like 80%, 90 % short
-term

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bullish here. I see a lot of comments
from you that.

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This is a sprint or a shakeout, and
we'll see

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what's going to happen.

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Okay, so then really quickly, the same
question, only long -term. So now don't

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think short -term.

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We have seen at 61 how we looked at the
sprint, and then it was not a sprint

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anymore. It was a sprint -type action,
but was not necessarily a sprint.

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So when I'm going to ask you this
question, think about the long term.

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think about the whole structure here and
think, what do you think at this point

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the long term bias is?

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Is it a distributional bias or is it an
accumulational bias?

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Up or down?

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Okay.

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So we are somewhere like 50 -50 here on
the bias. Hold on a second, guys.

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All right, I'm back. So we're 50 -50 on
the long -term bias.

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So let's just go through this.

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All right, so here's our trading range
as defined by the selling climax.

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We see this very clearly through the
volume signature, through the spread

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analysis, and through the confirmation
as to what has happened afterwards.

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So we're seeing two types of changes of
character. One is very big one to

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46.

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Another one is more local.

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You know, we'll talk.

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about this in the practicum as to how we
actually label this what it means and

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so on so forth but this is your phase a
phase a is defined by the stopping

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action itself selling climax by the
change of character that happens

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as a confirmation that the trend has
been done and we are going from

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from one environment which is the
trending environment at downtrend to a

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-trending environment, a trading range,
a consolidation.

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And then we have series of tests at 44
and at 50.

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And that's the definitional book example
of

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phase A, where we have all of those
elements.

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We're not talking here about the
preliminary support as an element of

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but those...

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Three main elements, stopping action,
change of character as an automatic

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response to the previous move to the
downside, and testing of

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that stopping action has happened.

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So we are clearly in phase A right here.

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Now I'm going to kind of quickly go
through phase B. We said that 53 -55

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was an upthrust in phase B.

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look like a SPRINT type secondary test

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as a sign of weakness in phase B still.

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Now let me talk a little bit about this
here.

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Secondary test as a sign of weakness.

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So we don't necessarily have in the
method this

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particular definition.

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We don't necessarily have this
definition either, spring type.

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Usually Wyckoff would say that this is
just a secondary test.

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Now, the way how Hank was teaching the
class, he would say that this is a minor

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sign of weakness.

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So combining those two ideas, that this
is a test, but it acts as

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a minor sign of weakness,

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meaning that the minor sign of weakness
would have some kind of either

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emergence of the supply or deteriorating
demand, which is poor.

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And both suggest a retest.

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That's the idea behind the minor sign of
weakness.

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The idea behind secondary tests is just
testing what? Testing previous lows. So

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testing phase A lows.

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So in WTC, we just combine these two
elements together.

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So we know that it's a test, it's a
secondary test, and because it shows

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weakness, because the price temporarily
commits like a sprint -type commitment

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below the area of the support, we're
going to say that either supply is still

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present there or demand is not that
active. In this case, it's all about

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so demand is poor.

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And we could expect some kind of retest
that we've seen at 8081 and 1991.

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Those are going to be the spots where
this retest of 61 is happening.

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So don't be confused about, you know,
some of the

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essentially non -conventional semantics
that I'm bringing here in

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this classroom.

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I am interpreting the method in my own
way. So I'm showing you my

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interpretation. It doesn't necessarily
mean that this is the original Wyckoff

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label. And actually, Wyckoff did not
have the labeling of a spring. Wyckoff

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not have the labeling of the phases as
well. That came later with some other

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people from SMI. So it's kind of ironic
how it all unfolds.

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Oh, boy.

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It just got to me exactly what has
happened there in that conversation.

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Okay, so 70 to 75, another upthrust.

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And again, we were thinking that it
could be phase C of

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the distribution. But then if that was
an upthrust in the distribution,

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we would have a commitment below 61 on
the sign of weakness, right? And we

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see that. 80 and 81 is actually a higher
low.

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So being that a higher low, we're
thinking, and then 90 coming as a higher

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then we know that this upthrust between
70, 75

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is just an upthrust still in phase B.

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And sometimes that happens, right?

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We're going to have multiple tests in
some of the stocks at the support level,

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multiple tests at the resistance level.
So what does it mean? Why is it not just

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three tests?

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And this is a great example where I give
you something, guys, a shortcut.

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Remember what I told you about phase C,
right? How are we finding phase C? Well,

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this is test number three.

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This is second point of fear.

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So those are most common. common
scenarios that should happen.

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And then we're gonna have more uncommon
scenarios like this one, where we are

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gonna have multiple tests, more than
three tests.

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And we have to manage this, and we still
have to mentally stay in the game if we

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want to follow this particular
instrument, this particular stock.

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So in this case, there are actually more
tests here.

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So after us in phase B, then going into
the higher low, again, we were thinking

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maybe phase C, we did make a comparative
study of the

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supply between areas of 76 and 81 and
compared that to the

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area of 59 and 66.

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And our conclusion was that

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we actually have more supply between 76
and 81, even though it makes a higher

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low.

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And therefore, the rally is not going to
be as great as we saw from 61 to 73.

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That suggested another upthrust. We
didn't know exactly what kind of

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we're going to have.

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So we go into the 90, and yeah, just a
very urgent

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distributional upthrust on a very high
volume signature.

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and it's just surrounded by supply on
the previous two bars on the right and

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the left. But the majority of it came at
19, and it came as an urgent supply.

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That suggests it's a short -term trade,
which we would be closing at the close

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of this bar if we do not follow intraday
action. If we follow intraday action,

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then our close of this position, entry,
another entry maybe another entry

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somewhere here we would be closing it on
the intraday basis as the price gaps to

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the downside goes down first or goes up
first tries to go up and then goes down

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so then as it rallies back above the low
of

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61 this is where our intraday exit would
be so exit intraday

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And again, this is something that is
being discussed in the more advanced

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classes, but you could see the logic of
this, right? So important support.

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You have so much gain, you don't want to
give it away.

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And you're probably closing this
position right away because you still

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lot of volatility, you have a lot of
participation, and it looks climactic.

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goes through the support level, not only
one, but two.

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So as the price starts to come back, you
realize that there is some value here,

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short -term and maybe even long -term
value if you're thinking accumulation

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for institutions.

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So as they're going to see this value,
what are they going to do? Are they

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to buy?

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And this institutional buying is going
to create a lot of momentum to the

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upside, so you don't want to be caught
up in that momentum on the upside.

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So you want to liquidate the position at
the extreme point of value for

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institutions where they are starting to
aggressively buy the stock.

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So that would be your exit right here,
and then exit at the close.

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And we would be done with that short
-term trade.

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And at this point, this is what we're
thinking.

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We're looking at this whole labeling and
we're thinking, well, 90 was supposed

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00:18:37,090 --> 00:18:39,870
to be a major sign of strength.

227
00:18:40,450 --> 00:18:43,310
It didn't materialize. There was an
urgent supply.

228
00:18:44,630 --> 00:18:51,050
And it drove the price back to the lows
of 40 and 61.

229
00:18:52,430 --> 00:18:53,550
What could this be?

230
00:18:55,430 --> 00:19:01,090
If this is a distribution and if 90 is a
distributional top

231
00:19:01,090 --> 00:19:08,090
in phase C, effectively an upthrust of
the distribution, then we should have

232
00:19:08,090 --> 00:19:09,710
a sign of weakness after this.

233
00:19:10,350 --> 00:19:13,150
And we should explore whether this is a
sign of weakness.

234
00:19:13,510 --> 00:19:18,990
If this is a spring or a shakeout in
phase C for the accumulation,

235
00:19:20,090 --> 00:19:22,850
then we should see specific
characteristics as well.

236
00:19:23,830 --> 00:19:30,510
Not only that, not only the
characteristics of the way of how the

237
00:19:30,510 --> 00:19:37,470
down we would explore, but we also would
be looking for a confirmation of

238
00:19:37,470 --> 00:19:38,550
one over another.

239
00:19:38,850 --> 00:19:44,270
This is going to come later because
we're going to look at the retests and

240
00:19:44,270 --> 00:19:48,710
going to see what kind of rally we're
going to have. Is it a strong rally? Is

241
00:19:48,710 --> 00:19:49,710
a weak rally?

242
00:19:49,900 --> 00:19:52,000
how's the testing going, and so on and
so forth.

243
00:19:52,220 --> 00:19:54,600
And then we would seek that
confirmation.

244
00:19:55,640 --> 00:20:01,180
Strategy -wise, tactic -wise, if we are,
let's say, on the major sign of

245
00:20:01,180 --> 00:20:05,740
weakness, we would be looking for the
last point of supply for the

246
00:20:05,740 --> 00:20:09,740
of that. And this is where we could
reestablish our short position.

247
00:20:10,040 --> 00:20:16,840
We don't necessarily, that, you know,
concern

248
00:20:16,840 --> 00:20:18,880
that we got out of this position.

249
00:20:19,690 --> 00:20:24,050
quick buck really fast and that's it for
now.

250
00:20:24,510 --> 00:20:30,290
Give us a sign that indeed this is a
continuation of a

251
00:20:30,290 --> 00:20:34,810
redistributional pattern and then we
will get back into the position.

252
00:20:35,050 --> 00:20:39,390
If this is an accumulation, there is too
much volatility and still the testing

253
00:20:39,390 --> 00:20:40,550
process needs to happen.

254
00:20:40,950 --> 00:20:43,590
So let's go one by one with all of these
thoughts.

255
00:20:43,870 --> 00:20:48,050
So the first one was, is this a sign of
weakness?

256
00:20:49,900 --> 00:20:52,000
So how would we define that?

257
00:20:52,200 --> 00:20:56,360
Well, first we would look at the
character.

258
00:20:58,380 --> 00:21:03,240
And then we would also look at the
confirmation.

259
00:21:07,500 --> 00:21:13,860
So on the character side, we're gonna
say that a sign of weakness, by the

260
00:21:13,860 --> 00:21:14,860
definition,

261
00:21:17,900 --> 00:21:23,120
And again, guys, you know, I'm just
going through some conversations on the

262
00:21:23,120 --> 00:21:29,640
material that I'm presenting, so I'm
just going to make those references.

263
00:21:29,880 --> 00:21:31,880
Yes, Philip, I'm talking about 91, yes.

264
00:21:34,060 --> 00:21:39,620
So this is the definition that I gave in
WTC to our students.

265
00:21:39,940 --> 00:21:44,520
A sign of weakness is going to be a
reaction that travels

266
00:21:44,520 --> 00:21:51,280
from, uh the highs of phase c throughout
the

267
00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:57,140
whole trading range and

268
00:21:57,140 --> 00:22:04,100
overcomes and commits below the support
cluster that

269
00:22:04,100 --> 00:22:11,020
was created in phases a and b and then
uh spends

270
00:22:11,020 --> 00:22:13,240
time below that support

271
00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:22,280
and reacts up in the rally that comes
exactly to that support level,

272
00:22:22,540 --> 00:22:26,220
not necessarily in the first rally, but
could be on the second round.

273
00:22:27,820 --> 00:22:33,280
So definitionally, we have that move to
the downside.

274
00:22:34,600 --> 00:22:38,500
That's great. We don't have the
commitment, so reaction.

275
00:22:40,400 --> 00:22:41,400
Yes.

276
00:22:42,600 --> 00:22:43,600
Commitment.

277
00:22:50,110 --> 00:22:54,150
Rally, we have to see what kind of rally
we're going to see here.

278
00:22:54,870 --> 00:22:58,390
Would it be weak or strong rally? That
would act as that confirmation.

279
00:22:59,590 --> 00:23:01,730
So there is no commitment to the
downside.

280
00:23:02,470 --> 00:23:03,470
That's very strange.

281
00:23:04,610 --> 00:23:09,990
When is it that we see a non -commitment
and what does it lead to?

282
00:23:10,410 --> 00:23:14,490
So in the areas of the upthrust, we see
the...

283
00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:21,720
temporary commitment to the upside and
then a reversal back into the trading

284
00:23:21,720 --> 00:23:27,800
range. Temporary commitment above the
latest point of the resistance and then

285
00:23:27,800 --> 00:23:29,540
coming back into the trading range.

286
00:23:29,780 --> 00:23:31,520
The same here at 90.

287
00:23:32,180 --> 00:23:37,680
That's what a temporary commitment is or
an attempt to commit.

288
00:23:37,980 --> 00:23:40,420
We see this also in the spring.

289
00:23:40,660 --> 00:23:42,880
Just one commitment at 61.

290
00:23:43,630 --> 00:23:47,530
And then a quick reversal and price
comes back quickly into the trading

291
00:23:47,910 --> 00:23:50,650
Those are the springs and the up
thrusts.

292
00:23:51,210 --> 00:23:58,190
A sign of weakness as a sign of strength
is going to show us an ability not

293
00:23:58,190 --> 00:24:04,470
just to temporarily commit above, but to
spend some time there. It's as if above

294
00:24:04,470 --> 00:24:10,750
the resistance, there is a limited
selling for a period of time that

295
00:24:12,410 --> 00:24:16,890
some bullish sentiment, let's say for
the sign of strength, still exists above

296
00:24:16,890 --> 00:24:20,910
the resistance for maybe multiple
closes.

297
00:24:21,690 --> 00:24:28,610
The same for the sign of weakness. This
is where we would see the

298
00:24:28,610 --> 00:24:31,570
closes below the area of the support.

299
00:24:32,930 --> 00:24:35,810
And one thing that we don't see here,
it's that.

300
00:24:36,490 --> 00:24:38,090
Look at the bar number 91.

301
00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:42,620
opening the close almost at the same
spot.

302
00:24:43,120 --> 00:24:46,440
And it's actually close to one half of
the trading range.

303
00:24:46,840 --> 00:24:51,160
Again, the question here that we would
be asking here, just based on the

304
00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:55,780
definition of the sign of weakness,
where is our closes for the sign of

305
00:24:55,780 --> 00:24:57,420
weakness? And we don't see those.

306
00:24:57,660 --> 00:25:04,440
So it's only if we would come back to
this and we would see some closes below

307
00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:11,390
the now even 91, then we would be...
thinking that, yeah,

308
00:25:11,530 --> 00:25:17,090
this looks more like a sign of weakness
rather than a sprint.

309
00:25:17,310 --> 00:25:18,690
But we don't have that.

310
00:25:19,030 --> 00:25:25,590
And then on the sprint definition, we
would see that temporary commitment

311
00:25:25,590 --> 00:25:29,890
or attempt to commit.

312
00:25:30,510 --> 00:25:34,870
An attempt to commit is gonna look like
this.

313
00:25:39,500 --> 00:25:46,200
where you have the intraday tail below
the area of the support that tries to

314
00:25:46,200 --> 00:25:51,200
commit on the close but only commits on
the intraday level, and then the price

315
00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:54,180
comes back above the support level.

316
00:25:54,520 --> 00:26:00,300
And, oh, boy, do you see that, guys, how
quickly this price comes back once it

317
00:26:00,300 --> 00:26:07,020
goes into the oversold below 61, and
then institutions are quickly picking it

318
00:26:07,020 --> 00:26:08,840
and rallying it back.

319
00:26:11,999 --> 00:26:18,080
So if we would be looking at this from a
different perspective, imagine that

320
00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:24,160
we're looking from this from the
perspective of the close and not from

321
00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:26,940
perspective of the highs and the lows on
the bar.

322
00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:33,520
Then our close would be right here.

323
00:26:34,440 --> 00:26:38,020
And we would never even see this move to
the downside.

324
00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:44,040
Instead, this is the lowest close here,
and then this is the lowest close here,

325
00:26:44,180 --> 00:26:46,000
and then this is the lowest close here.

326
00:26:46,580 --> 00:26:52,060
Instead, we would be saying that based
on the close, we are actually making a

327
00:26:52,060 --> 00:26:58,340
higher low here relative to this close,
or relative to the close around 61.

328
00:26:59,070 --> 00:27:02,210
So we are progressing each time with
that close.

329
00:27:02,490 --> 00:27:06,610
And we're actually progressing each time
with the close to the upside as well.

330
00:27:06,870 --> 00:27:11,010
Even though there are some, this is
maybe, yeah, slightly up.

331
00:27:12,070 --> 00:27:16,630
Even though those are up thrusts, but
look at what's happening here with the

332
00:27:16,630 --> 00:27:21,450
closes on the relays as well. So we're
seeing higher highs, higher lows. So

333
00:27:21,450 --> 00:27:24,670
there is a little bit of a hidden bias
here.

334
00:27:24,910 --> 00:27:26,850
It's not necessarily a technique.

335
00:27:27,540 --> 00:27:32,880
but we just want to observe this, all
right? So don't make it a part of your

336
00:27:32,880 --> 00:27:37,340
plan to look at the trading range like
this, because not always you're going to

337
00:27:37,340 --> 00:27:38,540
have a spring like this.

338
00:27:38,940 --> 00:27:43,520
And this is looking more like a spring,
like that attempt to commit.

339
00:27:43,760 --> 00:27:48,600
The only problem with this spring is the
volume signature.

340
00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:55,500
It's still very hot, but we know that
with the spring number two,

341
00:27:57,580 --> 00:28:04,480
we could have increasing volume
signature and lower low in

342
00:28:04,480 --> 00:28:05,480
that volume signature.

343
00:28:05,640 --> 00:28:09,960
It's just that we want to see just
either one day commitment, one bar

344
00:28:09,960 --> 00:28:14,280
commitment, or just an attempt to
commit, and that's exactly what happens

345
00:28:15,080 --> 00:28:20,840
So now that we're thinking that this is
a spring, we're thinking, okay, we're

346
00:28:20,840 --> 00:28:23,100
glad that we are out of our short
position.

347
00:28:23,480 --> 00:28:29,780
If this is our dominant, hypothesis
right now and we know that sign of

348
00:28:29,780 --> 00:28:34,240
could happen in some different ways but
if we're thinking that this is phase C

349
00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:39,780
and this is the screen then we probably
would be thinking that we could buy this

350
00:28:39,780 --> 00:28:42,000
spring once volatility goes down

351
00:28:42,000 --> 00:28:48,720
or we could even have

352
00:28:48,720 --> 00:28:51,360
like a very small probe position here

353
00:28:54,890 --> 00:29:01,650
And I would be probably thinking here
like 1 tenth, 1

354
00:29:01,650 --> 00:29:03,990
fifth, you know, that type of size.

355
00:29:04,490 --> 00:29:10,730
So maybe like on the 1%, maybe to have
10 to

356
00:29:10,730 --> 00:29:12,930
20 basis points.

357
00:29:16,810 --> 00:29:22,210
Because we are realizing that this could
be also the timing.

358
00:29:24,240 --> 00:29:28,500
of when the price is going to start
finally going up.

359
00:29:28,700 --> 00:29:32,560
And this is a very important level now
at 91.

360
00:29:32,920 --> 00:29:39,580
This is probably where stop loss will
not be hit if this is a true phase C.

361
00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:43,120
Remember how we defined the uptrend?
Where does the uptrend begin?

362
00:29:43,340 --> 00:29:46,380
It starts at the low of phase C.

363
00:29:46,600 --> 00:29:50,960
The phase C low is the lowest low in the
uptrend.

364
00:29:51,450 --> 00:29:55,190
not in the trading range necessarily,
but definitely in the uptrend.

365
00:29:55,430 --> 00:30:02,190
So therefore, we could be thinking here
that this is the low, and we could take

366
00:30:02,190 --> 00:30:05,110
that pro position. In fact, let's just
do that.

367
00:30:05,350 --> 00:30:10,050
And then we would be thinking that with
all of this volatility, we need some

368
00:30:10,050 --> 00:30:11,050
kind of testing.

369
00:30:11,070 --> 00:30:15,670
So the testing will present us with
other opportunities to come in. Then

370
00:30:15,670 --> 00:30:20,550
obviously, if everything fails, then we
are only...

371
00:30:21,160 --> 00:30:26,800
10, 20 basis points on the loss and it's
not a big deal.

372
00:30:28,260 --> 00:30:33,040
Okay, so we're looking for something
like this where the rally comes maybe

373
00:30:33,040 --> 00:30:37,840
the area of the previous resistance here
where there was some attempt to go up

374
00:30:37,840 --> 00:30:40,840
and then it's gonna fail again
temporarily.

375
00:30:41,460 --> 00:30:43,280
Does this remind you of the current
market?

376
00:30:43,500 --> 00:30:44,500
Maybe.

377
00:30:46,040 --> 00:30:50,300
And then depending on how much supply is
going to come here, if supply is

378
00:30:50,300 --> 00:30:55,640
increasing locally, then we're probably
going to have some kind of consolidation

379
00:30:55,640 --> 00:30:56,660
as a test.

380
00:30:57,140 --> 00:31:02,360
If not, we're just going to have a high
or low, and then we're going to go off

381
00:31:02,360 --> 00:31:08,400
there. So we just need to see what's
going to happen next. Okay, let's look.

382
00:31:12,920 --> 00:31:15,020
All right, so we are going into...

383
00:31:15,360 --> 00:31:20,880
92, right into the previous area of
intermediate resistance.

384
00:31:23,440 --> 00:31:29,720
We're happy to see that the price not
just closes up on a spring, but it

385
00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:36,680
actually has a progression to the upside
after

386
00:31:36,680 --> 00:31:38,500
that spring, after that spring bar.

387
00:31:38,900 --> 00:31:40,340
And we see that

388
00:31:41,360 --> 00:31:45,040
several closes that actually go up, they
progress.

389
00:31:46,560 --> 00:31:51,040
And that tells us that there is some
buying and the volume confirms this.

390
00:31:51,040 --> 00:31:57,740
at the buying here on these two bars and
compare that to what is happening off

391
00:31:57,740 --> 00:31:58,740
the spring low.

392
00:31:58,920 --> 00:32:03,340
So this spring low by itself has a lot
of demand behind it.

393
00:32:03,800 --> 00:32:08,660
Why? Let's review this really quickly.
Well, we're seeing

394
00:32:10,399 --> 00:32:14,420
Relative to, well, relative to what?

395
00:32:16,780 --> 00:32:23,140
Relative to what? Relative probably to
the previous bar because we can't

396
00:32:23,140 --> 00:32:25,380
bar number 90 and 91.

397
00:32:25,620 --> 00:32:31,220
Those are two different contextual
places of how supply and demand

398
00:32:31,820 --> 00:32:38,760
Those are actually opposing analog bars.
It's almost like a mirror image of each

399
00:32:38,760 --> 00:32:42,980
other. So we probably would be just
comparing and thinking that the previous

400
00:32:42,980 --> 00:32:49,460
bar, let's just call it 90 .5, is the
one that we're comparing to.

401
00:32:50,800 --> 00:32:55,020
And we would say that the effort has
increased tremendously.

402
00:32:56,080 --> 00:32:58,440
And that effort was to the downside.

403
00:32:58,960 --> 00:32:59,960
Yet.

404
00:33:01,930 --> 00:33:03,750
What has happened with the result?

405
00:33:03,950 --> 00:33:08,510
Price tried to commit to the downside
and did not make a lot of progress on

406
00:33:08,510 --> 00:33:10,170
close relative to the open.

407
00:33:12,530 --> 00:33:14,190
Spread has increased.

408
00:33:15,950 --> 00:33:18,590
Close to the spread is really bullish.

409
00:33:19,130 --> 00:33:23,570
So the result to the downside diminished
a lot.

410
00:33:23,910 --> 00:33:30,610
So on extreme increase in effort, we're
seeing extreme...

411
00:33:32,240 --> 00:33:34,080
diminishing result to the downside.

412
00:33:34,940 --> 00:33:40,920
Definitely bullish, and not only that,
in a way, this type of bullishness where

413
00:33:40,920 --> 00:33:46,200
it's being shown on the result side of
things, suggests that we're gonna have a

414
00:33:46,200 --> 00:33:47,880
significant rally.

415
00:33:51,640 --> 00:33:55,680
That character defines the timing for us

416
00:33:55,680 --> 00:34:00,240
of awe.

417
00:34:01,070 --> 00:34:03,690
the potential beginning of the new move.

418
00:34:03,890 --> 00:34:10,830
We also could compare that bar, that
spring bar, to the previous bars of the

419
00:34:10,830 --> 00:34:15,010
same quality where we saw some kind of
momentum kickoff.

420
00:34:15,870 --> 00:34:18,909
So here it is, here it is, here it is.

421
00:34:20,150 --> 00:34:25,810
And we would be thinking here, okay,
those are contextually analogous bars.

422
00:34:26,070 --> 00:34:29,610
Why? Well, because they have
characteristics of

423
00:34:30,540 --> 00:34:37,120
stop in action, demand increase, and
that's what gives the

424
00:34:37,120 --> 00:34:39,360
kickoff to the momentum.

425
00:34:39,820 --> 00:34:44,739
And it just happens over and over and
over again.

426
00:34:45,280 --> 00:34:51,100
And it happens in the area of the
support, so that's why the context of

427
00:34:51,100 --> 00:34:52,580
these bars is the same.

428
00:34:53,239 --> 00:34:58,620
So what do we see here if we would
compare all of these four bars? Let me

429
00:34:58,620 --> 00:35:02,460
just... show you the volume signature as
well because this is going to be the

430
00:35:02,460 --> 00:35:03,460
key.

431
00:35:05,900 --> 00:35:11,540
We're seeing that 91 is actually

432
00:35:11,540 --> 00:35:14,840
the best bar of them all.

433
00:35:15,640 --> 00:35:22,620
Just because we're seeing an urgent
demand coming in and producing the

434
00:35:22,620 --> 00:35:25,980
biggest result on all of those bars.

435
00:35:26,650 --> 00:35:31,790
And what is the result? Well, from the
low of the bar to the close. This is the

436
00:35:31,790 --> 00:35:33,910
largest distance that has been covered.

437
00:35:34,690 --> 00:35:36,830
From the low to the close.

438
00:35:37,170 --> 00:35:39,150
From the low to the close.

439
00:35:39,570 --> 00:35:41,710
From the low to the close.

440
00:35:43,590 --> 00:35:47,430
And it happens on a big volume
signature.

441
00:35:47,750 --> 00:35:53,410
And it happens at the very interesting
contextual place here. We're seeing...

442
00:35:53,760 --> 00:35:57,080
what we could describe maybe as second
point of fear.

443
00:35:57,300 --> 00:36:02,380
Well, it definitely looks much more
fearful than anything that we've seen

444
00:36:02,380 --> 00:36:07,980
in the trading range. It probably
reminds us more of the actual downtrend

445
00:36:07,980 --> 00:36:14,640
we have had before from the 30s here
into the 40 and

446
00:36:14,640 --> 00:36:17,060
41. This looks the same.

447
00:36:17,450 --> 00:36:21,470
So it's very interesting to observe the
whole downtrend there from the 30s to

448
00:36:21,470 --> 00:36:28,370
the 40s, compare that to the 90 to 91,
and see that 90 to 91 actually

449
00:36:28,370 --> 00:36:30,410
does not progress to the downside.

450
00:36:30,830 --> 00:36:35,630
And this is, again, something that we've
been discussing throughout this

451
00:36:35,630 --> 00:36:37,130
exercise for so long.

452
00:36:38,550 --> 00:36:44,990
Something's going to look extremely
bearish, but in reality, it's

453
00:36:44,990 --> 00:36:46,410
extremely bullish.

454
00:36:49,580 --> 00:36:56,500
And I think that conventional technical
analysis just doesn't clearly define

455
00:36:56,500 --> 00:37:02,760
that contextual problem for us. And
that's where Wyckoff method has this

456
00:37:03,920 --> 00:37:10,700
We are looking at the progress of the
effort and

457
00:37:10,700 --> 00:37:12,760
progress of the result.

458
00:37:13,640 --> 00:37:19,080
And as the effort increases, but result
decreases dramatically, not only it

459
00:37:19,080 --> 00:37:24,580
gives us an indication of the bias, but
it also suggests the timing

460
00:37:24,580 --> 00:37:30,640
that it's now, and also it suggests the
character on urgent institutional buy

461
00:37:30,640 --> 00:37:33,020
-in that the next rally is going to be
substantial.

462
00:37:33,940 --> 00:37:39,080
Okay, well, if next rally is going to be
substantial, then where would it go to?

463
00:37:39,560 --> 00:37:43,320
Well, definitely above 90 if this is a
substantial rally.

464
00:37:43,740 --> 00:37:49,180
If it's going to go above 90, then we're
probably talking about a major sign of

465
00:37:49,180 --> 00:37:53,280
strength rather than an upthrust,
although we saw how this upthrust has

466
00:37:53,280 --> 00:37:59,000
happened. I mean, look at that going
above so much and then coming back.

467
00:37:59,240 --> 00:38:04,120
So we still have to keep this in mind.
We would be looking at the character

468
00:38:04,120 --> 00:38:07,920
which the price moves. That's number
one. Then we would be looking at the

469
00:38:07,920 --> 00:38:08,920
commitment.

470
00:38:09,550 --> 00:38:10,610
That's number two.

471
00:38:12,630 --> 00:38:17,430
And then we would be looking at some
kind of backing up action as a

472
00:38:17,430 --> 00:38:20,970
that this was a sign of strength.

473
00:38:21,450 --> 00:38:25,650
That's going to be point number three.
So keep this in mind, guys.

474
00:38:26,510 --> 00:38:31,430
And then the second target, so the first
target is probably going to be above

475
00:38:31,430 --> 00:38:37,110
90. We need to commit above 90. And then
we could be thinking about a long

476
00:38:37,110 --> 00:38:38,110
-term...

477
00:38:38,540 --> 00:38:45,340
resistance here and that could come into
play

478
00:38:45,340 --> 00:38:49,940
and that could provide maybe a long
-term resistance so the thinking maybe

479
00:38:49,940 --> 00:38:55,720
price as target number two will come
here either be rejected here or would

480
00:38:55,720 --> 00:39:01,620
overcome as target three and obviously
each target has low probability for us

481
00:39:01,620 --> 00:39:04,440
right or high probability as we see the
character develop

482
00:39:05,160 --> 00:39:09,560
So we're thinking maybe between T1 and
T2, something like that.

483
00:39:09,800 --> 00:39:13,620
This is where we would go. This would be
a really good major sign of strength,

484
00:39:14,000 --> 00:39:19,700
especially if the price spans multiple
closes above 90.

485
00:39:20,460 --> 00:39:27,060
Okay, so now we're kind of figuring this
thing out, and we have a small probe

486
00:39:27,060 --> 00:39:27,959
right here.

487
00:39:27,960 --> 00:39:30,320
We're looking at the latest bar, 93.

488
00:39:31,140 --> 00:39:32,860
It doesn't have a lot of supply.

489
00:39:35,530 --> 00:39:41,970
So that's great because we're definitely
seeing that supply has

490
00:39:41,970 --> 00:39:43,450
significantly went down.

491
00:39:45,350 --> 00:39:49,410
So there's not a lot of selling at this
point of time.

492
00:39:50,550 --> 00:39:56,950
And if we don't have a lot of selling,

493
00:39:57,110 --> 00:40:01,570
at some point, we're probably going to
stop this reaction.

494
00:40:01,910 --> 00:40:03,810
There's a question here from Philip.

495
00:40:04,280 --> 00:40:06,900
Isn't this an ease of movement bar?

496
00:40:07,540 --> 00:40:12,860
Ease of movement bar is going to be on
dimension supply signature with the

497
00:40:12,860 --> 00:40:15,920
commitment below the last commitment to
the upside.

498
00:40:18,700 --> 00:40:25,420
So, and then also, isn't it 92 shows
that

499
00:40:25,420 --> 00:40:27,000
supply is going up? Yes.

500
00:40:27,380 --> 00:40:30,200
Well, both of them show all of that.

501
00:40:31,540 --> 00:40:33,000
But here is the key.

502
00:40:33,930 --> 00:40:37,730
These two bars are related to what?

503
00:40:38,050 --> 00:40:42,390
To the whole structure or to just the
local substructure?

504
00:40:44,890 --> 00:40:47,490
What's going to happen after the low of
the spring?

505
00:40:48,610 --> 00:40:54,090
We are going to have a move to the
upside that's going to meet some

506
00:40:54,830 --> 00:40:57,070
Supply is going to increase locally.

507
00:40:58,570 --> 00:41:00,290
And it would suggest what?

508
00:41:00,960 --> 00:41:04,380
it would probably suggest some kind of
reaction.

509
00:41:04,960 --> 00:41:09,560
That reaction is going to be judged on
the presence of the supply.

510
00:41:13,800 --> 00:41:20,720
And then if supply is diminishing, most
likely this is

511
00:41:20,720 --> 00:41:23,080
going to create a higher low and the
reversal.

512
00:41:24,120 --> 00:41:27,680
And then the confirmation of that is
going to come somewhere here on the

513
00:41:27,680 --> 00:41:29,960
breakout, which we want to buy.

514
00:41:31,180 --> 00:41:38,020
And if supply is increasing and price
still goes

515
00:41:38,020 --> 00:41:41,560
down, that's when we're going to look at
this as a bearish scenario.

516
00:41:43,120 --> 00:41:45,500
So therefore, locally, what's happening
here?

517
00:41:45,740 --> 00:41:48,700
At 92, yes, there is an increase of the
supply.

518
00:41:49,040 --> 00:41:52,860
And we were anticipating this because of
this bar. So here it is.

519
00:41:55,200 --> 00:41:57,940
Supply is increasing and we are
stopping.

520
00:41:58,650 --> 00:42:01,150
And as we go down, what do we see?

521
00:42:01,430 --> 00:42:08,050
Well, we see that supply is actually
somewhat average for this area,

522
00:42:08,170 --> 00:42:15,150
or one of the lowest supplies in this
area. Because when we look at all of

523
00:42:15,150 --> 00:42:18,350
the red bars, it's clearly on the lowest
side.

524
00:42:18,550 --> 00:42:22,850
So as supply goes down, and we might be
thinking that there is an ease of

525
00:42:22,850 --> 00:42:27,430
movement here, ease of movement is
usually going to be a lower supply.

526
00:42:28,140 --> 00:42:29,180
and diminishing demand.

527
00:42:29,860 --> 00:42:32,940
So that's just a short -term rally.

528
00:42:33,340 --> 00:42:38,820
We still could go up to this point
somewhere here and still could create a

529
00:42:38,820 --> 00:42:40,300
higher low out of this.

530
00:42:40,580 --> 00:42:44,780
This type of reaction would suggest an
accumulation that we would do something

531
00:42:44,780 --> 00:42:45,780
like this.

532
00:42:47,200 --> 00:42:52,320
If the supply could only take us down
maybe to this low right here.

533
00:42:56,140 --> 00:43:00,860
then it would suggest that if you have a
trading range, it's probably going to

534
00:43:00,860 --> 00:43:03,480
be much shorter just because supply is
lower.

535
00:43:03,900 --> 00:43:05,580
And then we're going to have a breakout.

536
00:43:05,780 --> 00:43:06,980
And then we're going to have a breakout.

537
00:43:07,260 --> 00:43:12,900
So I think it's a question here of the
duration of that test. That's number

538
00:43:13,020 --> 00:43:14,900
And secondly, if that test fails.

539
00:43:16,020 --> 00:43:18,860
It's not that your comments, guys, are
not correct.

540
00:43:19,140 --> 00:43:22,360
And, you know, so I'm really happy that
you see this.

541
00:43:22,840 --> 00:43:24,920
Increase of the supply is a movement.

542
00:43:25,640 --> 00:43:28,700
But that only suggests a short -term
reaction for now.

543
00:43:29,320 --> 00:43:34,520
And only if it fails, then we would be
talking that, yes, indeed, you know,

544
00:43:34,520 --> 00:43:37,220
was an emergence of the supply or
something like this.

545
00:43:37,780 --> 00:43:39,360
Okay, let's see what else.

546
00:43:46,040 --> 00:43:51,560
Okay, so from Eric, why that bar? And
I'm assuming, you know, 93, so give me

547
00:43:51,560 --> 00:43:52,860
some references to the bars.

548
00:43:53,500 --> 00:43:58,900
Why that bar is too big if there is a
diminished supply and not small?

549
00:43:59,580 --> 00:44:06,380
Yeah, so again, we could have result
increasing

550
00:44:06,380 --> 00:44:13,320
on diminishing effort, right? So we have
diminishing

551
00:44:13,320 --> 00:44:20,000
effort here to the downside, and we have
increasing result

552
00:44:20,000 --> 00:44:21,220
to the downside.

553
00:44:21,950 --> 00:44:24,650
So that suggests a short -term reaction.

554
00:44:25,610 --> 00:44:27,310
That's what we are looking for.

555
00:44:28,090 --> 00:44:31,630
Once we understand that the reaction is
going to happen, we want to understand

556
00:44:31,630 --> 00:44:33,110
what is the character of that reaction.

557
00:44:35,090 --> 00:44:36,470
All right, from Charles.

558
00:44:36,690 --> 00:44:42,010
What about the probability of three up
bars ending in 92 being short covering?

559
00:44:42,230 --> 00:44:44,430
Is there a signature for short covering?

560
00:44:44,630 --> 00:44:49,470
Yeah, really good question about the
short covering. And indeed, think about

561
00:44:49,470 --> 00:44:50,470
of the professionals.

562
00:44:51,230 --> 00:44:55,670
or professional traders that are opening
positions everywhere right here.

563
00:44:55,930 --> 00:45:00,390
So all of the spots that I'm indicating,
those are going to be where a position

564
00:45:00,390 --> 00:45:02,230
could be opened on the way down.

565
00:45:02,550 --> 00:45:04,910
So they are extremely heavily short.

566
00:45:05,170 --> 00:45:09,050
Actually, one of the traders in this
stock is going to be me.

567
00:45:10,030 --> 00:45:15,430
I'm loving this type of situations where
very quickly we could

568
00:45:15,430 --> 00:45:20,030
gain a lot of profits.

569
00:45:20,760 --> 00:45:23,940
And it's only because we're seeing this
opportunity and we understand the

570
00:45:23,940 --> 00:45:28,000
character with which the price is going
to travel. So we are extracting the most

571
00:45:28,000 --> 00:45:34,660
optimal value through the bias, timing,
character, instrument,

572
00:45:34,860 --> 00:45:35,860
leverage.

573
00:45:36,560 --> 00:45:41,180
So what I would be doing here, I would
be closing on the way up.

574
00:45:41,380 --> 00:45:45,700
And that's what's going to bring, as
Charles suggests, some short covering.

575
00:45:50,160 --> 00:45:55,000
But look at this signature right here.
This is the second largest volume

576
00:45:55,000 --> 00:45:57,240
signature on this bar, on this chart.

577
00:46:00,360 --> 00:46:03,780
So do you think this is just a short
covering?

578
00:46:04,420 --> 00:46:05,640
It cannot be.

579
00:46:06,520 --> 00:46:12,300
It has to be more than that. It has to
be a very strong institutional presence

580
00:46:12,300 --> 00:46:18,500
on that bar that reverses such a heavily
bearish sentiment.

581
00:46:19,720 --> 00:46:22,320
in the market at this point of time.

582
00:46:22,580 --> 00:46:29,360
So that suggests some institutional
presence, not just of the short

583
00:46:29,360 --> 00:46:33,520
-term professional trading, but long
-term institutional trading.

584
00:46:35,920 --> 00:46:42,900
Okay, but obviously, yes, there will be
some short covering, which will add to

585
00:46:42,900 --> 00:46:44,160
this bar as well.

586
00:46:52,520 --> 00:46:58,160
Okay, so I think we're going a little
bit too much into the details here, but

587
00:46:58,160 --> 00:46:59,160
let's address this.

588
00:47:00,020 --> 00:47:05,900
From Philip, can there be such absence
of demand after such huge demand in 91?

589
00:47:06,100 --> 00:47:07,038
Why is that?

590
00:47:07,040 --> 00:47:09,380
Big rally needs big demand.

591
00:47:10,500 --> 00:47:13,700
Why in such disappearance of demand so
early?

592
00:47:16,240 --> 00:47:18,900
Well, look at 61, right?

593
00:47:19,920 --> 00:47:21,520
What do we observe here?

594
00:47:22,120 --> 00:47:24,100
Demand comes in heavily.

595
00:47:25,020 --> 00:47:28,100
Actually, take 40 as well and 41 too.

596
00:47:30,240 --> 00:47:31,860
Demand comes in heavily.

597
00:47:32,120 --> 00:47:34,480
And then what happens with the demand
signature?

598
00:47:37,300 --> 00:47:43,780
Nothing, right, until it increases here,
until it actually goes into the second

599
00:47:43,780 --> 00:47:48,900
stage of the advance and third stage of
the advance. So this is the first stage.

600
00:47:49,710 --> 00:47:55,810
So during the first stage here, we
really only see that institutions were

601
00:47:55,810 --> 00:48:01,330
on the way down, on the way down, and
then on the way up, on the way up.

602
00:48:01,330 --> 00:48:02,830
it. Nothing else.

603
00:48:04,650 --> 00:48:06,330
Here, it's the same.

604
00:48:07,250 --> 00:48:11,410
Buying on the way down, buying on the
way up in one bar.

605
00:48:12,230 --> 00:48:14,290
And then there is some buying here.

606
00:48:15,690 --> 00:48:20,330
And by the way, that bind, if we would
be comparing this bind to everything

607
00:48:20,330 --> 00:48:27,010
else, what we've seen, so let's say
here's another bar like that, right? So

608
00:48:27,010 --> 00:48:30,130
bind on the way down and then on the way
up.

609
00:48:30,690 --> 00:48:34,230
The next two bars, look at their volume
signature.

610
00:48:34,790 --> 00:48:38,250
The next two bars or three bars, look at
their volume signature.

611
00:48:38,570 --> 00:48:42,670
The next two bars, look at their volume
signature. And look at the analogous

612
00:48:42,670 --> 00:48:43,670
bars here.

613
00:48:43,850 --> 00:48:49,250
Where would you say, Philip, that the
demand is better, that the demand is

614
00:48:49,250 --> 00:48:54,350
present, that the demand is actually
resulting in the better progress?

615
00:48:56,470 --> 00:49:03,390
Probably in the last case, as you say.
Yes. We see in both the

616
00:49:03,390 --> 00:49:09,750
volume signature increase, suggesting
that demand is more at this spot than in

617
00:49:09,750 --> 00:49:11,970
the previous momentum kickoffs.

618
00:49:12,250 --> 00:49:13,370
That's number one.

619
00:49:13,790 --> 00:49:19,530
Secondly, we're seeing that demand is
actually producing a better result.

620
00:49:19,850 --> 00:49:25,130
We're seeing a better progression from
the latest close up

621
00:49:25,130 --> 00:49:30,570
in the same analogous type of bars.

622
00:49:30,830 --> 00:49:37,810
So that tells us that not only the
effort behind buying is

623
00:49:37,810 --> 00:49:42,650
increasing at this spot, but the result,
the actual

624
00:49:44,560 --> 00:49:50,640
progress to the upside is being allowed
more. There is more participation by

625
00:49:50,640 --> 00:49:56,500
institutions. There is more urgency from
institutions, and that suggests that we

626
00:49:56,500 --> 00:49:59,520
are there. This is the timing right now.

627
00:50:01,460 --> 00:50:02,460
All right.

628
00:50:02,760 --> 00:50:07,420
Another question from Nilesh. Volume
does not match with any of the volume

629
00:50:07,420 --> 00:50:11,680
analysis schematics we studied earlier
for accumulation, or am I reading the

630
00:50:11,680 --> 00:50:12,680
volume progression?

631
00:50:13,120 --> 00:50:14,280
through phases incorrectly.

632
00:50:15,360 --> 00:50:17,100
Actually, it matches perfectly.

633
00:50:19,460 --> 00:50:22,440
Okay, Nilesh, I'm gonna unmute you
really quick.

634
00:50:22,680 --> 00:50:29,480
So what is the volume phase analysis
schematic that

635
00:50:29,480 --> 00:50:30,740
you are referring to?

636
00:50:32,280 --> 00:50:33,400
Let's start from there.

637
00:50:33,840 --> 00:50:40,120
Sure, so what I was looking at is, so
phase A volume, right, we are at a

638
00:50:40,180 --> 00:50:41,420
and then in phase B,

639
00:50:42,560 --> 00:50:48,160
Phase C that we are suspecting the last
91 is to be phase C. So it's kind of

640
00:50:48,160 --> 00:50:49,800
increasing throughout, right?

641
00:50:50,020 --> 00:50:56,540
Yeah. So you were looking for this,
something like this, where we have a

642
00:50:56,540 --> 00:51:01,020
long -term decrease of the supply from
phase A

643
00:51:01,020 --> 00:51:07,260
to C. But we are seeing maybe a local

644
00:51:07,260 --> 00:51:09,520
increase of the supply.

645
00:51:10,380 --> 00:51:12,160
from phase B to C.

646
00:51:12,360 --> 00:51:15,160
That's going to be the most common
volume signature.

647
00:51:15,540 --> 00:51:20,180
But we also had some variations.
Remember, there were four variations on

648
00:51:20,180 --> 00:51:22,100
supply signature in the accumulation.

649
00:51:22,840 --> 00:51:25,900
One of them, and I'm going to mute you
here. Thank you, Nilesh.

650
00:51:26,160 --> 00:51:28,160
One of them was this.

651
00:51:29,200 --> 00:51:34,480
Phase A, significant volume signature,
stopping volume signature.

652
00:51:34,700 --> 00:51:39,720
And then we go into phase B. We could
have a variation of diminishing volume

653
00:51:39,720 --> 00:51:44,040
signature or even increasing into phase
B.

654
00:51:45,060 --> 00:51:51,400
And then one of the most difficult
variations was the increase of the

655
00:51:51,400 --> 00:51:55,140
signature and increase supply signature
going into phase C.

656
00:51:55,660 --> 00:52:01,580
Usually, such increase of the volume
signature going into phase C would carry

657
00:52:01,580 --> 00:52:03,780
distributional type of quality.

658
00:52:04,340 --> 00:52:06,980
But yet, with this

659
00:52:08,940 --> 00:52:14,120
result signature, we are not producing a
result to the downside.

660
00:52:15,300 --> 00:52:21,020
And that's that variation that is so
confusing because on the volume side, it

661
00:52:21,020 --> 00:52:26,000
looks more like a sign of weakness
rather than an accumulation.

662
00:52:29,000 --> 00:52:34,000
So you have to look at the result, and
this is the result that we see.

663
00:52:36,030 --> 00:52:41,050
uh now let's yeah just come back to
those different variations and we did

664
00:52:41,050 --> 00:52:46,690
exercise remember where we had the same
stock the same kind of structure at

665
00:52:46,690 --> 00:52:51,570
different in different trading ranges
and then directionally it went different

666
00:52:51,570 --> 00:52:57,150
ways okay but good question okay um

667
00:52:57,150 --> 00:52:58,650
okay

668
00:53:07,720 --> 00:53:11,060
All right, so now let's just say I'm
taking this as phase B. This will be in

669
00:53:11,060 --> 00:53:16,740
phase B, but remember, we want to look
at what? We want to look at the supply

670
00:53:16,740 --> 00:53:21,800
signatures at the areas of the testing,
right? Because this is where supply

671
00:53:21,800 --> 00:53:27,820
comes, and we want to see what comes
there.

672
00:53:28,080 --> 00:53:31,200
So here's our volume signature
throughout these areas.

673
00:53:32,650 --> 00:53:37,010
And it still increases, right? So we
still have that increase into faith.

674
00:53:38,090 --> 00:53:39,090
Okay,

675
00:53:39,570 --> 00:53:40,570
what else?

676
00:53:49,530 --> 00:53:56,450
Okay, Armand is saying, okay, so if 91
is a spring on a

677
00:53:56,450 --> 00:53:58,450
huge volume, it is a sign of weakness.

678
00:54:01,230 --> 00:54:08,050
Okay, again, volume characteristics has
to be combined with the

679
00:54:08,050 --> 00:54:10,910
result characteristics, with the price
characteristics.

680
00:54:11,330 --> 00:54:15,710
And I agree with you that sign of
weakness would occur on the increased

681
00:54:15,710 --> 00:54:16,710
signature.

682
00:54:16,950 --> 00:54:22,050
But also a sign of weakness would commit
below the support, and we don't see

683
00:54:22,050 --> 00:54:28,710
this commitment. A commitment below
would be the close being below.

684
00:54:29,710 --> 00:54:30,970
the area of the support.

685
00:54:31,510 --> 00:54:35,830
All right, guys, I think that we are
done here. We've spent too much time on

686
00:54:35,830 --> 00:54:37,570
this, so let's just go on.

687
00:54:37,790 --> 00:54:40,410
I really would like to finish this
exercise today.

688
00:54:40,810 --> 00:54:46,130
So we were expecting a reaction based on
92 and 93 reading.

689
00:54:46,570 --> 00:54:47,870
Here is this reaction.

690
00:54:49,130 --> 00:54:50,330
Here is this reaction.

691
00:54:50,930 --> 00:54:54,930
Would you say that it's a bullish
reaction or it's a bearish reaction?

692
00:54:55,500 --> 00:55:00,900
And do you guys see how it's dangerous
to make any long -term assumption about

693
00:55:00,900 --> 00:55:02,940
92 and 93 at that point?

694
00:55:03,560 --> 00:55:07,260
Because you don't know if supply comes
in.

695
00:55:07,720 --> 00:55:11,780
The key is not to react on the supply,
right?

696
00:55:12,420 --> 00:55:16,840
I'm trying to think about the analogy.
The first thing that comes to my mind is

697
00:55:16,840 --> 00:55:20,580
rain, right? So if it drizzles, it
doesn't mean that it's going to storm.

698
00:55:21,200 --> 00:55:24,800
But you know that it's going to rain.

699
00:55:25,770 --> 00:55:32,050
So you want to make a judgment as to
what kind of rain you're going to have,

700
00:55:32,050 --> 00:55:37,190
don't know, maybe in the next 30
minutes, and make that assumption about

701
00:55:37,190 --> 00:55:38,169
whole rain.

702
00:55:38,170 --> 00:55:39,730
So it's the same thing here.

703
00:55:40,110 --> 00:55:43,910
You know that supply comes in. There is
a drizzle of supply.

704
00:55:45,850 --> 00:55:52,790
And you have to make a judgment of what
kind of

705
00:55:52,790 --> 00:55:54,730
reaction we're going to have when it
occurs.

706
00:55:55,500 --> 00:55:56,500
Not before.

707
00:55:58,060 --> 00:56:04,640
And we see with the down bars not being
able even to commit

708
00:56:04,640 --> 00:56:08,360
below the low of the bar number 93.

709
00:56:08,820 --> 00:56:14,140
And this bar right here is an inside
bar, so we can't really consider this a

710
00:56:14,140 --> 00:56:15,160
commitment to the downside.

711
00:56:16,160 --> 00:56:22,380
So this was 93 on the ease of movement
was the biggest result to the downside.

712
00:56:23,540 --> 00:56:24,740
Bullish or bearish?

713
00:56:27,630 --> 00:56:34,090
If this is the only thing that supply
could do at 92 to stop that rally

714
00:56:34,090 --> 00:56:40,970
of the 91 spring, then I think we are
okay. We're not coming

715
00:56:40,970 --> 00:56:45,230
back even, what, one half of the move to
the downside.

716
00:56:48,030 --> 00:56:50,230
It looks structurally very bullish.

717
00:56:52,720 --> 00:56:57,460
If you also want some kind of
confirmation on the character, look at

718
00:56:57,960 --> 00:56:59,700
Spread is starting to diminish.

719
00:57:00,720 --> 00:57:04,760
And then looking for the confirmation on
the volume signature, volume is

720
00:57:04,760 --> 00:57:06,020
starting to diminish as well.

721
00:57:06,320 --> 00:57:07,680
What does that tell you?

722
00:57:07,920 --> 00:57:12,180
Well, it tells you that supply is
diminishing. There is no selling.

723
00:57:12,580 --> 00:57:19,520
And the price stays in one half of the

724
00:57:19,520 --> 00:57:20,520
range.

725
00:57:21,320 --> 00:57:28,300
of the long -term range after such a
volatile event.

726
00:57:28,600 --> 00:57:34,140
What does it mean? This means that
whatever buying has come at 91 and on

727
00:57:34,140 --> 00:57:41,100
subsequent four bars, that buying is
substantial and we don't have

728
00:57:41,100 --> 00:57:43,560
any more selling.

729
00:57:44,190 --> 00:57:47,550
So therefore, we would be thinking of
adding to our position.

730
00:57:47,850 --> 00:57:51,450
And this is the test. Swing 27 is our
test.

731
00:57:51,670 --> 00:57:56,630
So this is where we want to spend the
majority of our tactical time.

732
00:57:57,390 --> 00:57:59,430
Where would we be opening the position?

733
00:57:59,830 --> 00:58:05,870
Bar 94 is an interesting bar for us
because if we would compare

734
00:58:05,870 --> 00:58:08,330
94 and 92,

735
00:58:09,340 --> 00:58:13,980
We're seeing that the effort slightly
went down, and yet the result has

736
00:58:13,980 --> 00:58:18,220
increased in the way of how spread has
expanded.

737
00:58:19,580 --> 00:58:23,420
So we could say that, yes, we could buy
this bar at the close.

738
00:58:24,300 --> 00:58:29,560
Then we also could say on bar 94, we see
a little bit of the supply tail, and

739
00:58:29,560 --> 00:58:31,760
effort is somewhat elevated.

740
00:58:33,720 --> 00:58:36,900
So therefore, we are going to have
another reaction.

741
00:58:37,440 --> 00:58:39,200
So we could buy off that reaction.

742
00:58:39,880 --> 00:58:43,200
And we could do that on the way down.

743
00:58:43,520 --> 00:58:46,840
And we could do this on the way up.
Well, let's say that we are more

744
00:58:46,840 --> 00:58:48,240
conservative. We need confirmation.

745
00:58:49,180 --> 00:58:54,360
So maybe what we could do is we could
get into the position here with the stop

746
00:58:54,360 --> 00:58:55,360
buy or here.

747
00:58:55,520 --> 00:58:58,480
This would be the level based on the
high of the bar 94.

748
00:58:58,840 --> 00:59:05,040
And based on the last red bars high,
this is the area where we would be

749
00:59:05,040 --> 00:59:10,570
thinking. if the price goes through this
area most likely we are breaking out

750
00:59:10,570 --> 00:59:12,610
above 92 93 94.

751
00:59:13,110 --> 00:59:19,370
so therefore we want to buy more so we
bought in here we bought in here

752
00:59:19,370 --> 00:59:25,410
we want to buy in here we probably want
to buy in here again on the way up as

753
00:59:25,410 --> 00:59:31,730
we're thinking 92 and 93 could be
analogous to 81 i'm sorry 82

754
00:59:31,730 --> 00:59:33,990
65

755
00:59:39,350 --> 00:59:40,670
And 42.

756
00:59:41,650 --> 00:59:48,290
In all of these cases, when we had a
move up, a test, a breakout,

757
00:59:48,530 --> 00:59:51,070
this is where the price continued to go
up.

758
00:59:54,010 --> 00:59:56,890
And this was the beginning of the move.

759
00:59:57,850 --> 01:00:04,610
And look at where we are starting that
move, right? If we would break 92,

760
01:00:05,050 --> 01:00:07,750
this would be equivalent of 40.

761
01:00:08,090 --> 01:00:10,310
2 and 45 breakout.

762
01:00:12,910 --> 01:00:19,330
And that suggests that with the

763
01:00:19,330 --> 01:00:24,690
anticipation that the character of the
rally is going to be better,

764
01:00:24,810 --> 01:00:29,890
that suggests that we're probably going
to go into a major sign of strength.

765
01:00:30,170 --> 01:00:35,730
So therefore, we are extremely
aggressive at this spot. We basically

766
01:00:35,730 --> 01:00:41,800
anything. on the way up that gives us
some kind of opportunity to get into the

767
01:00:41,800 --> 01:00:42,800
position.

768
01:00:43,620 --> 01:00:46,260
All right, let's look at bar 95.

769
01:00:47,120 --> 01:00:48,280
What do we see?

770
01:00:50,080 --> 01:00:52,960
And what would we be comparing this bar
to?

771
01:00:53,420 --> 01:00:56,220
So effort is going down.

772
01:00:57,640 --> 01:00:59,260
What happens with the result?

773
01:01:00,400 --> 01:01:03,880
Let's see what you guys are going to
answer here.

774
01:01:06,160 --> 01:01:10,180
Effort goes down, what is the result of
this bar?

775
01:01:15,300 --> 01:01:18,340
Increasing, yes, of course, it's
increasing.

776
01:01:19,460 --> 01:01:26,320
It's committing to the upside, right? If
we would take this volume signature,

777
01:01:26,800 --> 01:01:32,080
this volume signature right here, this
one has some supply so we can't really

778
01:01:32,080 --> 01:01:38,860
use it, so this was the highest, we
might be thinking, ha the breakout but

779
01:01:38,860 --> 01:01:44,780
effort is going down so we don't have
enough demand to commit to the upside

780
01:01:44,780 --> 01:01:51,700
then at 96 we definitely see that right
so 96 commits up above 95

781
01:01:51,700 --> 01:01:58,020
and above 92 in such way that negates
you know overcomes all of the demand

782
01:01:58,020 --> 01:02:03,590
that we have in this area so that just
confirms that That confirms the

783
01:02:03,870 --> 01:02:07,390
but let's come back to 95. I think it's
a very interesting bar.

784
01:02:09,230 --> 01:02:12,290
What you would be comparing this bar to?

785
01:02:13,950 --> 01:02:20,290
You probably would love to find some
analogs that are similar contextually.

786
01:02:20,390 --> 01:02:23,530
84 would be that analog.

787
01:02:24,670 --> 01:02:27,710
67 would be that analog.

788
01:02:29,250 --> 01:02:30,250
45.

789
01:02:31,150 --> 01:02:32,430
would be that analog.

790
01:02:34,670 --> 01:02:36,190
Where is it? Right here.

791
01:02:38,450 --> 01:02:40,530
To a certain degree, well, no.

792
01:02:41,090 --> 01:02:42,750
Let's just deal with all of those.

793
01:02:44,890 --> 01:02:50,170
Okay, so why 89, somebody said 89,

794
01:02:50,390 --> 01:02:56,730
and 52 are not going to be those
analogs. Well, again, stop in action,

795
01:02:56,990 --> 01:02:59,130
rally, test.

796
01:02:59,690 --> 01:03:01,630
Stop in action, rally, test.

797
01:03:01,990 --> 01:03:04,310
Stop in action, rally, test.

798
01:03:04,990 --> 01:03:10,730
So 89 is different in that context
because it's closer to the resistance,

799
01:03:10,730 --> 01:03:12,590
it's not off the support.

800
01:03:12,890 --> 01:03:14,450
It's not the initial momentum.

801
01:03:14,710 --> 01:03:20,350
It's a continuation of that momentum. So
you can't contextually compare those to

802
01:03:20,350 --> 01:03:25,130
95. So what do you see at 95? Let's just
generalize everything.

803
01:03:25,390 --> 01:03:26,670
Look at the volume signature.

804
01:03:29,030 --> 01:03:30,890
Highest volume signature.

805
01:03:33,610 --> 01:03:34,670
Highest effort.

806
01:03:38,830 --> 01:03:43,490
Well, I wonder what this highest volume,
highest effort produces.

807
01:03:46,410 --> 01:03:49,090
Does it produce the best result?

808
01:03:50,950 --> 01:03:52,310
I would say so.

809
01:03:53,190 --> 01:03:54,950
It is the best result.

810
01:03:57,530 --> 01:04:03,710
Again, It's the weight of evidence that
we are accumulating

811
01:04:03,710 --> 01:04:09,430
as we are starting to decipher all of
the price action of 92.

812
01:04:11,490 --> 01:04:18,310
We are observing institutional presence
of

813
01:04:18,310 --> 01:04:22,250
higher quality and much bigger size.

814
01:04:24,650 --> 01:04:28,950
based on the character with which they
are buying, we're saying that there is

815
01:04:28,950 --> 01:04:30,310
some urgency to buy.

816
01:04:30,770 --> 01:04:36,950
And we see this through the analogous
work that we've done at 92,

817
01:04:37,410 --> 01:04:42,890
I'm sorry, at 91, at 92, 93, and now at
95.

818
01:04:43,290 --> 01:04:49,410
And at all of those spots, it's just
screaming at us that institutions are

819
01:04:49,410 --> 01:04:51,030
really interested in the stock.

820
01:04:54,560 --> 01:05:00,940
urgency for them to be in this position
right now so that suggests that we are

821
01:05:00,940 --> 01:05:06,340
probably most likely are going to have a
major sign of strength and we need to

822
01:05:06,340 --> 01:05:10,580
get more into this position if we're a
long -term investors and even if we're

823
01:05:10,580 --> 01:05:15,420
short -term investors then we would be
you know trying to get in into this

824
01:05:15,420 --> 01:05:21,750
position yes relative to let's say
previous bars that we have had where

825
01:05:21,750 --> 01:05:26,770
was present. So demand, demand, demand,
demand, demand.

826
01:05:26,990 --> 01:05:30,830
We're seeing some kind of diminishing
demand signature, and we're seeing that

827
01:05:30,830 --> 01:05:34,550
the price actually extends easily to the
upside.

828
01:05:34,770 --> 01:05:37,790
So there is this ease of movement here,
that's for sure.

829
01:05:38,030 --> 01:05:43,730
We said that 96 was the largest volume
signature that overwhelms all of the

830
01:05:43,730 --> 01:05:45,810
demand bars, confirms that breakout.

831
01:05:46,170 --> 01:05:49,770
It's just that confirmation comes on the
next bar, not necessarily on 95.

832
01:05:51,470 --> 01:05:56,830
but definitely a much easier movement
than to the upside.

833
01:05:57,110 --> 01:05:58,730
Okay, let's look at 96.

834
01:06:00,090 --> 01:06:02,530
96 is also a very interesting bar.

835
01:06:03,350 --> 01:06:08,290
Why? Well, because look at the volume
signature. It's the highest volume

836
01:06:08,290 --> 01:06:11,470
signature. It kind of reminds me of the
90.

837
01:06:15,330 --> 01:06:16,330
All right.

838
01:06:16,460 --> 01:06:20,520
And plus, we know that supply usually
comes at this level.

839
01:06:23,140 --> 01:06:26,080
This whole area right here.

840
01:06:26,360 --> 01:06:29,120
I'm just going to do it like this.

841
01:06:29,360 --> 01:06:35,520
Look at the previous attempts to stop
the price from going up in this area.

842
01:06:35,520 --> 01:06:36,540
number 46.

843
01:06:37,620 --> 01:06:39,140
Bar number 48.

844
01:06:40,220 --> 01:06:41,220
52.

845
01:06:41,700 --> 01:06:42,700
53.

846
01:06:43,560 --> 01:06:44,560
54.

847
01:06:45,360 --> 01:06:49,140
55, all of those have supply signatures.

848
01:06:49,600 --> 01:06:53,040
70, 71, 72,

849
01:06:54,300 --> 01:06:57,040
70 whatever,

850
01:06:57,780 --> 01:07:02,780
and then 73, all of those have supply
signatures.

851
01:07:03,320 --> 01:07:09,920
85, 87, 89, 90,

852
01:07:10,020 --> 01:07:14,500
one behind 90, and one after that.

853
01:07:15,690 --> 01:07:22,170
All of those bars have some presence of
institutional selling.

854
01:07:23,950 --> 01:07:27,810
This could be just professionals doing a
mean reversion trade. This could be

855
01:07:27,810 --> 01:07:32,670
institutions getting into the position
and then selling some of the position.

856
01:07:32,810 --> 01:07:38,890
This could be just trading in general on
institutional side when they see that

857
01:07:38,890 --> 01:07:41,330
the price is in the overbought.

858
01:07:43,100 --> 01:07:44,460
part of the trading range.

859
01:07:44,680 --> 01:07:47,560
What are they gonna do? They're gonna
sell because they know that they could

860
01:07:47,560 --> 01:07:54,300
extract even a little bit out of this
move, but on their big size, that's a

861
01:07:54,300 --> 01:07:57,340
percent and they could just go away from
that trade at some point.

862
01:07:58,200 --> 01:08:03,980
So 96 is the bar where supply comes.

863
01:08:05,260 --> 01:08:10,880
So here is a question for all of you and
let's just kind of like

864
01:08:11,840 --> 01:08:17,479
This is going to be a repeat, but I
think this is where, you know, I'm

865
01:08:17,479 --> 01:08:19,880
through some of your comments might be
the mistake.

866
01:08:23,520 --> 01:08:26,779
What do you think? Supply definitely
comes on 96.

867
01:08:28,040 --> 01:08:32,560
So what do you think about this supply?

868
01:08:35,640 --> 01:08:36,880
What does it mean?

869
01:08:38,899 --> 01:08:45,370
Does it act? in the same way as in the
previous positions in the previous cases

870
01:08:45,370 --> 01:08:52,350
and this is by far probably you know one
of the

871
01:08:52,350 --> 01:08:57,630
largest supplies probably the highest
supplies was at 90 and then this is

872
01:08:57,630 --> 01:09:01,069
probably the second spot where supply is
extremely heavy

873
01:09:08,430 --> 01:09:09,850
Okay, well, let's look at that.

874
01:09:11,430 --> 01:09:18,250
And again, I think that it comes maybe
from just a conventional technical

875
01:09:18,250 --> 01:09:24,330
analysis. Whenever I hear from students
that, well, supply is there, so this

876
01:09:24,330 --> 01:09:26,290
means that there is selling.

877
01:09:29,189 --> 01:09:32,109
Yes, but there is always selling.

878
01:09:33,490 --> 01:09:35,649
There is always somebody who's buying
and selling.

879
01:09:36,220 --> 01:09:39,680
So then how would the price go up if
somebody is always selling?

880
01:09:41,560 --> 01:09:44,500
It's all in the way of how supply is
being observed.

881
01:09:49,620 --> 01:09:54,660
Whether it's going to be observed or
not. So supply increase.

882
01:09:55,370 --> 01:09:59,770
does not necessarily mean right away
that we're going to have a stop in

883
01:09:59,910 --> 01:10:00,849
I mean, look at 70.

884
01:10:00,850 --> 01:10:02,710
Supply has come. Supply has increased.

885
01:10:02,930 --> 01:10:04,490
We see this from the volume signature.

886
01:10:04,790 --> 01:10:11,230
Does it mean that the price right away
went to the support level? No. It

887
01:10:11,230 --> 01:10:14,430
requires time, right? So change happens
through time.

888
01:10:14,670 --> 01:10:20,230
So if supply increases, we're looking
basically at two scenarios.

889
01:10:21,950 --> 01:10:23,630
Is supply being observed?

890
01:10:25,680 --> 01:10:32,620
and then the price, meaning that the
price will go up, or, and this is the

891
01:10:32,620 --> 01:10:33,620
here.

892
01:10:33,880 --> 01:10:36,040
Let me see who gave me this comment.

893
01:10:36,360 --> 01:10:43,220
Philip, yes. So this is the key here. Or
would supply produce

894
01:10:43,220 --> 01:10:47,220
an increase in the result to the
downside?

895
01:10:47,700 --> 01:10:50,740
If that's the case, then the price will
go down.

896
01:10:52,560 --> 01:10:54,020
So what do we see here?

897
01:10:54,830 --> 01:10:59,330
First of all, the price gaps up quite
significantly.

898
01:11:00,190 --> 01:11:07,170
And we really did not see this before.
From 95 to 96, this is where the price

899
01:11:07,170 --> 01:11:09,470
opens. This is where the price closes.

900
01:11:09,890 --> 01:11:16,330
So the intraday picture for this, and I
just wanted to show you this gap. Why?

901
01:11:16,510 --> 01:11:22,870
Well, because there are no other gaps
around this area. I mean, 89 kind of

902
01:11:22,870 --> 01:11:24,090
resembles in the spread.

903
01:11:24,640 --> 01:11:30,360
the gap in the spread that's for sure uh
but there is nothing else really so gap

904
01:11:30,360 --> 01:11:36,760
by itself becomes a bullish sign so this
means that overnight institutions are

905
01:11:36,760 --> 01:11:40,760
trying to buy maybe it was an event like
earnings event and we're observing the

906
01:11:40,760 --> 01:11:47,080
increase of the volume signature like
that so we open with the gap

907
01:11:47,080 --> 01:11:52,700
and then what do we do next we go down
to the low

908
01:11:53,710 --> 01:11:59,850
and we get them to the area of the
previous bar, which becomes intraday

909
01:12:00,270 --> 01:12:02,330
But then we rally back.

910
01:12:02,670 --> 01:12:08,270
So if this is the close of the previous
bar, so let's say close of bar zero,

911
01:12:08,630 --> 01:12:09,630
open of one.

912
01:12:10,070 --> 01:12:16,290
So as we get through this level,
somewhere here, you have to become

913
01:12:16,290 --> 01:12:19,590
again on the intraday level.

914
01:12:21,160 --> 01:12:23,880
And then we are just closing like this.

915
01:12:24,360 --> 01:12:29,140
So whatever supply has come and
increased, what happened to it? Has it

916
01:12:29,140 --> 01:12:30,820
observed by the end of this day?

917
01:12:32,600 --> 01:12:33,600
Most likely.

918
01:12:34,700 --> 01:12:41,060
We came back to the close and we are
kind of like having

919
01:12:41,060 --> 01:12:46,100
one of the highest closes historically
here.

920
01:12:48,060 --> 01:12:50,280
Where else have we closed?

921
01:12:52,010 --> 01:12:58,230
higher. We closed higher at 74 and we
closed higher at 89. There were no other

922
01:12:58,230 --> 01:13:05,110
higher closes on up bars that we've seen
so far. And that happened on the

923
01:13:05,110 --> 01:13:11,210
extreme volume signature where we know
that this volume spike tells us that

924
01:13:11,210 --> 01:13:18,130
supply has increased and yet we are
closing bullishly.

925
01:13:20,779 --> 01:13:21,820
Closing bullishly.

926
01:13:24,960 --> 01:13:28,640
I don't know if this is the correct
word, bullishly, if there is such a

927
01:13:29,260 --> 01:13:31,980
We close bullish on that bar.

928
01:13:35,640 --> 01:13:37,200
Doesn't that tell us something?

929
01:13:37,500 --> 01:13:41,840
Isn't that a great piece of information
where so much supply comes?

930
01:13:43,160 --> 01:13:46,600
Again, think about this. So much supply
comes on this bar.

931
01:13:47,850 --> 01:13:52,010
supply comes in this area where supply
has come before and yet such a favorable

932
01:13:52,010 --> 01:13:53,310
close. What does it mean?

933
01:13:54,030 --> 01:13:55,370
Lots of buying behind.

934
01:13:55,730 --> 01:13:58,690
And with such a big volume signature,
who's buying?

935
01:13:58,930 --> 01:14:01,570
Only big institutions could buy at this
point.

936
01:14:02,210 --> 01:14:07,250
We can't exhaust it. They are out of
this position. They don't want to see

937
01:14:07,250 --> 01:14:12,650
stock because there is so much emotional
pain about it. All of these ups and

938
01:14:12,650 --> 01:14:14,210
downs, all of these decisions.

939
01:14:14,830 --> 01:14:19,780
We, on the contrary, are going to be
adding to this position on this bar if

940
01:14:19,780 --> 01:14:23,700
we're extremely aggressive. So I'm
showing you all of the aggressive kind

941
01:14:23,700 --> 01:14:24,700
like entries here.

942
01:14:24,920 --> 01:14:29,900
So the first intraday entry would be
here, then at the close.

943
01:14:30,220 --> 01:14:32,760
The next entry would be at the close
here.

944
01:14:33,040 --> 01:14:36,120
Kind of aggressive conservative, so to
say.

945
01:14:37,760 --> 01:14:39,100
Another entry here.

946
01:14:40,340 --> 01:14:44,660
another entry on the way up, another
entry at the close, and then another

947
01:14:44,660 --> 01:14:46,920
on the intraday as we go up right here.

948
01:14:48,460 --> 01:14:52,780
We could also even consider opening the
position here. It's still a bullish bar.

949
01:14:53,340 --> 01:14:54,980
It's still a sign of strength bar.

950
01:14:55,220 --> 01:15:00,300
I could give you this bar in a slightly
different way.

951
01:15:00,900 --> 01:15:01,898
Look at this.

952
01:15:01,900 --> 01:15:04,260
How about this? Would you be buying this
type of bar?

953
01:15:09,580 --> 01:15:11,940
Would you be buying the clothes of this
bar?

954
01:15:13,960 --> 01:15:18,940
I probably would if it would look like
that, but I understand that, you know,

955
01:15:18,980 --> 01:15:25,640
the clothes here is just at the same
level, and it's just the intraday

956
01:15:25,640 --> 01:15:26,940
came in a different way.

957
01:15:27,520 --> 01:15:28,520
That's it.

958
01:15:29,100 --> 01:15:31,980
Okay, well, let's see what happens next.

959
01:15:34,920 --> 01:15:38,800
Guys, and I think that at this point,
I'm just going to go because all these

960
01:15:38,800 --> 01:15:44,140
questions are stopping me a little bit.
So let's just kind of go through this

961
01:15:44,140 --> 01:15:48,960
whole thing, and then let's see what
kind of questions we have at the end.

962
01:15:50,400 --> 01:15:53,100
Okay, so we're looking at 96.

963
01:15:53,520 --> 01:16:00,420
We are in the position bar 97 has,
again, the highest volume signature.

964
01:16:00,500 --> 01:16:02,200
Look at this volume signature.

965
01:16:03,120 --> 01:16:07,780
What are you guys seeing here in this
area that the volume is so high?

966
01:16:08,380 --> 01:16:13,240
I think that for some of you, there
might be a thought, well, the volume is

967
01:16:13,240 --> 01:16:16,060
high, this is a volume spike, so supply
has increased.

968
01:16:17,580 --> 01:16:18,580
That's correct.

969
01:16:19,460 --> 01:16:26,020
The next question that you should be
asking, well, if I'm so bearish, then

970
01:16:26,020 --> 01:16:27,980
me look at what? At the result.

971
01:16:28,220 --> 01:16:29,860
And what is the result of this?

972
01:16:30,990 --> 01:16:37,770
we are committing above all of the
levels of the resistance, and we have

973
01:16:37,770 --> 01:16:43,590
progression of the closes above the
resistance, which suggests that this is

974
01:16:43,590 --> 01:16:45,890
indeed a major sign of strength.

975
01:16:46,190 --> 01:16:53,010
One of our targets could be a stopping
target for us at

976
01:16:53,010 --> 01:16:57,770
100, and we would be thinking that,
yeah, indeed, we might be stopping here.

977
01:16:58,640 --> 01:17:01,860
But the price has committed
significantly to the upside.

978
01:17:02,120 --> 01:17:07,040
We have a very substantial profit at
this point of time. Think about all of

979
01:17:07,040 --> 01:17:08,620
these positions that we have opened.

980
01:17:08,880 --> 01:17:14,740
And here the decision is, what do you
want to do at this long -term

981
01:17:18,240 --> 01:17:21,740
Do you want to sell or do you want to
hold?

982
01:17:23,740 --> 01:17:27,580
I don't think that anybody in the group
should be thinking of buying here.

983
01:17:28,080 --> 01:17:34,360
because we just came out of the trading
range, and that suggests some kind of

984
01:17:34,360 --> 01:17:40,860
reaction. We just hit that long -term
resistance, so there is no buying here

985
01:17:40,860 --> 01:17:46,080
us, but it's just a decision of whether
we are holding this position or whether

986
01:17:46,080 --> 01:17:49,460
we are exiting it as a swing trade.

987
01:17:50,080 --> 01:17:53,160
I will let you think about this on your
own.

988
01:17:54,860 --> 01:17:56,300
What else are we seeing here?

989
01:17:56,560 --> 01:17:58,740
Well, let's go through the structure
now.

990
01:17:59,080 --> 01:18:05,800
Now that we're seeing a potential major
sign of strength, 91 is

991
01:18:05,800 --> 01:18:12,420
not just a suggestion, but it's probably
already becoming more

992
01:18:12,420 --> 01:18:17,680
of the reality, the way how the
character of the sign of strength has

993
01:18:18,360 --> 01:18:23,120
The character, not the definition of the
sign of strength.

994
01:18:23,630 --> 01:18:29,810
would suggest that the up spread is
going to increase, the volume signature

995
01:18:29,810 --> 01:18:33,270
going to increase, the demand is going
to increase, and we're going to have the

996
01:18:33,270 --> 01:18:37,830
result to the upside increasing a lot.

997
01:18:38,350 --> 01:18:41,310
Those are the characteristics of the
sign of strength.

998
01:18:41,710 --> 01:18:43,150
Those are not definitions.

999
01:18:43,530 --> 01:18:49,170
Usually students come and when I ask
what is the definition of the sign of

1000
01:18:49,170 --> 01:18:50,470
strength, they give me the
characteristic.

1001
01:18:50,810 --> 01:18:54,370
The spread should increase, the volume,
the demand should increase.

1002
01:18:55,210 --> 01:18:56,830
This is not definitional.

1003
01:18:57,910 --> 01:18:59,210
This is just...

1004
01:19:00,910 --> 01:19:03,150
This is just the characteristics.

1005
01:19:03,610 --> 01:19:07,970
And we see that characteristics suggest
they confirm a major sign of strength.

1006
01:19:08,270 --> 01:19:11,170
So if this was C, we said that this was
A.

1007
01:19:12,490 --> 01:19:14,150
Everything in between is B.

1008
01:19:15,790 --> 01:19:21,150
And now we're just waiting for what?
We're waiting for some kind of coming

1009
01:19:21,150 --> 01:19:26,590
into the trading range, depending on
where we're going to come. Again, look

1010
01:19:26,590 --> 01:19:27,990
how I am.

1011
01:19:30,089 --> 01:19:33,010
devising different structural
strategies.

1012
01:19:33,610 --> 01:19:38,850
And this is where I see today where some
of you still need to improve.

1013
01:19:39,410 --> 01:19:45,970
Just thinking in terms of, yes, supply
is coming in, it's bearish, but it's

1014
01:19:45,970 --> 01:19:51,570
bearish short term. It's not necessarily
bearish long term. Long term will need

1015
01:19:51,570 --> 01:19:55,750
to prove itself that it's going to be
either bullish or bearish. We're seeing

1016
01:19:55,750 --> 01:19:57,510
more confirmation of being bullish.

1017
01:19:58,090 --> 01:20:03,210
that institution's on the long -term
bullish side than a short -term, than a

1018
01:20:03,210 --> 01:20:06,990
long -term bearish side. So therefore,
you're thinking different scenarios.

1019
01:20:07,190 --> 01:20:14,130
Would the supply push the reaction to
90, or would it push

1020
01:20:14,130 --> 01:20:18,130
the reaction to maybe like 53, 55,
something like this?

1021
01:20:18,470 --> 01:20:23,310
And it just depends on that type of the
reaction, what we're going to have here,

1022
01:20:23,590 --> 01:20:26,250
what kind of recovery we're going to
have.

1023
01:20:26,910 --> 01:20:32,570
We could have different type of
structures, a more bullish structure, a

1024
01:20:32,570 --> 01:20:36,490
bearish structure. So we just have to go
and just see what's going to happen.

1025
01:20:36,570 --> 01:20:41,030
But we definitely know that reaction is
going to come, not just structurally.

1026
01:20:41,110 --> 01:20:42,590
Look at the volume and price analysis.

1027
01:20:43,130 --> 01:20:47,530
Big spread, diminishing spread,
diminishing spread at 100.

1028
01:20:48,210 --> 01:20:54,350
We are seeing that the next attempt to
commit to the upside, less progress on

1029
01:20:54,350 --> 01:20:55,990
the close, suggesting...

1030
01:20:56,250 --> 01:20:59,990
the diminishing momentum, and then a
slight increase in the volume signature

1031
01:20:59,990 --> 01:21:01,630
suggests that supply has come.

1032
01:21:01,850 --> 01:21:07,610
Also, supply has increased on the
previous bar. So we have two bars where,

1033
01:21:07,610 --> 01:21:14,170
rather three bars, 98, demand is going
down, 99, supply is increasing,

1034
01:21:14,390 --> 01:21:16,290
100, supply is increasing.

1035
01:21:17,370 --> 01:21:19,750
The reaction is imminent.

1036
01:21:22,630 --> 01:21:25,550
Here we are. We're seeing next bar.

1037
01:21:26,010 --> 01:21:32,310
And it has that struggle between the
demand and supply.

1038
01:21:33,350 --> 01:21:35,190
We see that in the boss structure.

1039
01:21:35,530 --> 01:21:40,010
And the volume signature is relatively
high. So if we were thinking that this

1040
01:21:40,010 --> 01:21:45,710
was an attempt to push the price up, and
all of them are, right? 97, attempt to

1041
01:21:45,710 --> 01:21:47,410
push the price up above 90.

1042
01:21:47,970 --> 01:21:53,350
98, attempt to overcome all of this
resistance at 1997.

1043
01:21:54,670 --> 01:21:55,870
It did so.

1044
01:21:56,170 --> 01:22:00,230
Then 100 to push above again. It did so.

1045
01:22:00,590 --> 01:22:06,990
101, another attempt to push up off the
initial selling

1046
01:22:06,990 --> 01:22:08,690
on the intraday basis.

1047
01:22:09,010 --> 01:22:12,790
And we cannot do this. We can't go
higher.

1048
01:22:13,150 --> 01:22:20,110
The next two bars, diminishing supply
signature and yet ease

1049
01:22:20,110 --> 01:22:22,890
of movement to the downside.

1050
01:22:24,720 --> 01:22:28,640
on two bars, suggesting that demand is
exhausted.

1051
01:22:31,400 --> 01:22:32,840
And where is it exhausted?

1052
01:22:33,140 --> 01:22:35,640
Again, in the area of the long -term
resistance.

1053
01:22:37,560 --> 01:22:42,460
Another way of thinking about why this
exhaustion of demand happens is that,

1054
01:22:42,580 --> 01:22:46,140
think about where institutions are
buying, like huge institutions.

1055
01:22:46,780 --> 01:22:50,980
They were buying here, here, here, here.

1056
01:22:52,680 --> 01:22:56,640
here, and I'm just outlining the biggest
bars.

1057
01:22:59,280 --> 01:23:03,980
And then after that, they are done.

1058
01:23:04,540 --> 01:23:06,100
They are not buying anymore.

1059
01:23:06,500 --> 01:23:09,000
This is the value zone for them right
now.

1060
01:23:11,860 --> 01:23:16,320
After that, everything, what comes next,
there are some institutional buying

1061
01:23:16,320 --> 01:23:23,130
here, but this is more of buying of the
late institutional

1062
01:23:23,130 --> 01:23:29,190
buy. They are going to be in a very
peculiar position when the buying climax

1063
01:23:29,190 --> 01:23:33,990
happens. And that's why I always say
that the breakout of the major sign of

1064
01:23:33,990 --> 01:23:40,070
strength is not a great way to buy this.
Imagine that you bought right on the

1065
01:23:40,070 --> 01:23:43,950
breakout. Where is your stop loss?
Really quickly tell me, where is your

1066
01:23:43,950 --> 01:23:44,950
loss?

1067
01:23:45,890 --> 01:23:48,950
On the breakout here, if you are buying
the breakout.

1068
01:23:50,640 --> 01:23:57,560
Is this maybe like this bar right here,
99, the low of 99 just being

1069
01:23:57,560 --> 01:24:02,160
slightly lower. Let's just put it right
here, right? So this could be that

1070
01:24:02,160 --> 01:24:03,160
place.

1071
01:24:03,340 --> 01:24:07,480
So the amateurs are going to feel really
good on the way up to 101.

1072
01:24:08,160 --> 01:24:11,620
They're going to be in profit. But then
let's just see what's going to happen

1073
01:24:11,620 --> 01:24:12,620
next.

1074
01:24:16,740 --> 01:24:18,500
They would be out of this position.

1075
01:24:20,490 --> 01:24:27,130
Even if you do one half of this bar, or
let's say maybe just slightly

1076
01:24:27,130 --> 01:24:29,750
below the close of this bar, you're
still out.

1077
01:24:31,090 --> 01:24:38,070
So therefore, think twice of doing the
breakout buy trade

1078
01:24:38,070 --> 01:24:43,470
on a major sign of strength like that.

1079
01:24:45,550 --> 01:24:48,590
And even Eric is saying below 97.

1080
01:24:49,070 --> 01:24:50,150
Yeah, that's a good...

1081
01:24:50,430 --> 01:24:54,810
Good position, but even this, you could
see, this is very close.

1082
01:24:55,070 --> 01:25:00,830
You could have gotten out, be gotten out
at that point just on some kind of

1083
01:25:00,830 --> 01:25:05,010
spring. It's not like it's going to
close below it. It's just going to

1084
01:25:05,010 --> 01:25:08,650
you out like this and then come back,
and you could be out.

1085
01:25:09,470 --> 01:25:15,090
So there is no reason to buy at this
spot just because of what comes next on

1086
01:25:15,090 --> 01:25:18,430
potential backing up action.

1087
01:25:19,150 --> 01:25:21,290
Well, let's look at the backing up
action itself.

1088
01:25:21,630 --> 01:25:27,110
So what do we see? Well, we see how
closes are progressing to the downside.

1089
01:25:28,990 --> 01:25:35,570
And yet, there is slowing of that
progression at the end. We're seeing

1090
01:25:35,570 --> 01:25:36,950
signature going down.

1091
01:25:38,730 --> 01:25:44,690
And that is, if we would take this whole
major sign of strength rally,

1092
01:25:46,570 --> 01:25:48,870
That happens into one half of that
rally.

1093
01:25:50,010 --> 01:25:56,990
That looks extremely bullish. Why
bullish as well is because demand is

1094
01:25:56,990 --> 01:26:00,610
so big in the comparison to the supply.

1095
01:26:00,950 --> 01:26:06,210
Demand dominates supply at this point,
not only on the volume signature, but

1096
01:26:06,210 --> 01:26:08,790
also on the result signature as well.

1097
01:26:09,010 --> 01:26:13,850
So we're still long -term bullish, and
we're short -term.

1098
01:26:14,240 --> 01:26:17,600
at this point we're going to be short
-term bearish. Why?

1099
01:26:18,380 --> 01:26:24,460
Okay, well, we're thinking this is the
largest supply that came after this

1100
01:26:24,460 --> 01:26:26,640
reaction, so we see an increase of the
supply.

1101
01:26:26,880 --> 01:26:29,920
That usually dictates that we are going
to have some kind of test.

1102
01:26:31,720 --> 01:26:37,960
So that test, after a higher high,
probably going to come as a higher low.

1103
01:26:39,380 --> 01:26:43,740
And higher high here is actually a
really good sign.

1104
01:26:44,140 --> 01:26:50,620
because it takes less of an effort to
have a higher high

1105
01:26:50,620 --> 01:26:55,960
this is extremely bullish this tells us
that there is no selling

1106
01:26:55,960 --> 01:27:02,780
at this resistance level all of the
supply has

1107
01:27:02,780 --> 01:27:07,390
been observed and whatever supply is
left You know, that's what's going to

1108
01:27:07,390 --> 01:27:11,710
us down. So we're probably going to have
a higher low rather than a lower low in

1109
01:27:11,710 --> 01:27:15,270
this range. And we're probably going to
have this higher low, and then we're

1110
01:27:15,270 --> 01:27:16,270
going to go up.

1111
01:27:16,350 --> 01:27:20,670
So we will have to think, you know,
tactically as to how we're going to get

1112
01:27:20,670 --> 01:27:22,790
into this position and increase our
size.

1113
01:27:23,170 --> 01:27:26,910
Well, one of the things, obviously,
right here, so this would be a point of

1114
01:27:26,910 --> 01:27:28,550
entry. This could be a point of entry.

1115
01:27:28,830 --> 01:27:33,350
So we could have one, two, three, four.

1116
01:27:34,110 --> 01:27:39,630
five, six, seven, eight, nine, 10.

1117
01:27:39,870 --> 01:27:44,390
So this is potential entry number 10.
And I'll outline them later.

1118
01:27:44,650 --> 01:27:50,090
But if the price comes back to the high
low, we could have somewhere entry right

1119
01:27:50,090 --> 01:27:56,470
here as well. So we want to load out
because we've seen that institutions

1120
01:27:56,470 --> 01:28:02,970
definitely want to get in into this
position very badly and very fast.

1121
01:28:03,630 --> 01:28:07,930
there is an urgency with which they are
getting into this position.

1122
01:28:08,230 --> 01:28:14,870
And this means for the long -term trend,
this is going to be extremely bullish.

1123
01:28:19,910 --> 01:28:21,710
Think about this as well.

1124
01:28:23,110 --> 01:28:25,570
Who got in in this trading range?

1125
01:28:25,830 --> 01:28:29,850
I mean, it's been developing for quite
some time. We don't really see a lot of

1126
01:28:29,850 --> 01:28:31,450
institutions. This is more selling.

1127
01:28:32,200 --> 01:28:35,980
We don't see a lot of institutions
coming in into this position until bar

1128
01:28:35,980 --> 01:28:36,980
91.

1129
01:28:37,340 --> 01:28:44,300
So if early institutional money managers
got in into this position on

1130
01:28:44,300 --> 01:28:51,060
the way up, think about late
institutions that are still not in this

1131
01:28:53,720 --> 01:28:57,880
And what if this position is just going
to go up? It's going to outperform the

1132
01:28:57,880 --> 01:28:58,880
market.

1133
01:29:00,040 --> 01:29:01,500
I'm sorry, there is a...

1134
01:29:01,710 --> 01:29:06,350
comment here from lee that my voice
breaks up sometimes so that might be a

1135
01:29:06,350 --> 01:29:12,470
connection guys i'm sorry i apologize
hopefully that just fully you know and

1136
01:29:12,470 --> 01:29:17,790
let me know if the connection is not
that great or i need to adjust my

1137
01:29:17,790 --> 01:29:24,710
microphone or speak up or something like
that so think

1138
01:29:24,710 --> 01:29:29,650
about those late institutions that

1139
01:29:32,110 --> 01:29:33,750
Still not in this position.

1140
01:29:35,190 --> 01:29:42,150
As the price starts showing absolute and
relative performance, what do

1141
01:29:42,150 --> 01:29:43,270
you think is going to happen next?

1142
01:29:44,310 --> 01:29:49,670
All of those institutions would want to
be in this position, and they're going

1143
01:29:49,670 --> 01:29:54,770
to start buying, and that's going to
produce a big move to the upside.

1144
01:29:59,660 --> 01:30:02,680
So let's see how the backing up action
develops.

1145
01:30:03,740 --> 01:30:06,000
Okay, so we're seeing that hesitation.

1146
01:30:06,920 --> 01:30:13,640
Bar number 108 shows some synchronicity
where the volume is

1147
01:30:13,640 --> 01:30:18,360
increasing and the result is increasing
to the downside.

1148
01:30:18,860 --> 01:30:23,800
So that's bearish, but that's bearish on
the short term.

1149
01:30:24,460 --> 01:30:29,540
This short -term bearishness cannot
negate the long -term bullish picture.

1150
01:30:31,260 --> 01:30:37,240
Why? Well, because think about all of
the institutions that bought at 91 and,

1151
01:30:37,240 --> 01:30:38,820
you know, and throughout 100.

1152
01:30:41,300 --> 01:30:44,500
Did they get out of this position at
108?

1153
01:30:45,380 --> 01:30:47,760
Do you see this in the volume signature?

1154
01:30:48,360 --> 01:30:50,220
Do you see this in the result?

1155
01:30:51,840 --> 01:30:53,200
No, we don't see that.

1156
01:30:55,240 --> 01:31:01,140
So therefore, we are assuming that it's
going to be a short -term bearish

1157
01:31:01,140 --> 01:31:04,820
reaction, and we said that, yeah, we
probably would be looking for some kind

1158
01:31:04,820 --> 01:31:05,820
high or low.

1159
01:31:06,920 --> 01:31:10,980
109 confirms that the reaction is going
to happen. The volume signature goes

1160
01:31:10,980 --> 01:31:17,420
down relative to the previous demand and
does not produce a commitment above the

1161
01:31:17,420 --> 01:31:19,920
high of bar number 108, the previous
bar.

1162
01:31:20,480 --> 01:31:24,840
So that suggests that the demand is 4.
There's just no demand at this point,

1163
01:31:24,960 --> 01:31:27,240
short term, and we're going to have a
reaction.

1164
01:31:27,560 --> 01:31:31,420
We're still thinking high or low
reaction. Let's look at that.

1165
01:31:32,120 --> 01:31:34,820
Here's that reaction, and I love 111.

1166
01:31:35,240 --> 01:31:41,540
Why? Because on a lot of volume
signature, it's kind of like the same as

1167
01:31:41,860 --> 01:31:42,860
104.

1168
01:31:45,000 --> 01:31:47,380
We have those spikes, but what happens?

1169
01:31:48,060 --> 01:31:49,840
There is buying into the close.

1170
01:31:50,400 --> 01:31:52,580
There is buying into the close.

1171
01:31:53,900 --> 01:31:58,880
Even 101, there is buying into the
close. 99, there is buying into the

1172
01:31:58,880 --> 01:32:01,000
96, there is buying into the close.

1173
01:32:02,260 --> 01:32:08,940
This is what we would love to see on a
bearish day that we could possibly

1174
01:32:08,940 --> 01:32:12,100
have. 91, the same, buying into the
close.

1175
01:32:15,200 --> 01:32:20,380
at 111 is actually extremely bullish
bar, and we're looking at the

1176
01:32:20,380 --> 01:32:23,380
of the closest to the downside, we're
still in this area.

1177
01:32:23,740 --> 01:32:30,320
We're still at like one half of the
rally between 107 and 104.

1178
01:32:37,220 --> 01:32:38,740
And maybe I'm just thinking,

1179
01:32:41,100 --> 01:32:46,640
The volume is so confusing because it
hides the signature of both demand and

1180
01:32:46,640 --> 01:32:51,260
supply, and it's really hard for us to
see that. We have to develop that skill

1181
01:32:51,260 --> 01:32:52,260
of seeing that.

1182
01:32:53,740 --> 01:33:00,180
And then the price candles also not a
great representation of

1183
01:33:00,180 --> 01:33:06,380
what actually happens by the end of the
session, right? Because you look at the

1184
01:33:06,380 --> 01:33:09,300
tail, and a lot of you are becoming...

1185
01:33:09,520 --> 01:33:10,880
somewhat bearish.

1186
01:33:13,280 --> 01:33:19,440
But we have to see the high and the low
because that defines the price action

1187
01:33:19,440 --> 01:33:22,480
for us during the day and that gives us
an information.

1188
01:33:22,780 --> 01:33:28,080
It's a very valuable information that we
see such a good rally into the close of

1189
01:33:28,080 --> 01:33:29,120
bar number 111.

1190
01:33:29,640 --> 01:33:36,400
Number 112, we're trying to commit above
the high here. We can't commit and

1191
01:33:36,400 --> 01:33:38,340
the volume signature is not that great.

1192
01:33:38,940 --> 01:33:43,800
Okay, well, maybe there is some kind of
ease of movement, but for the ease of

1193
01:33:43,800 --> 01:33:48,460
movement, we need to commit above the
high, and we're kind of right there.

1194
01:33:48,680 --> 01:33:55,120
So it reminds me more of this bar right
here. I believe it was 53 than anything

1195
01:33:55,120 --> 01:33:59,400
else. So we're probably still going to
retest, and what are we retesting?

1196
01:33:59,420 --> 01:34:02,040
Probably we're retesting field supply
and 1 and 11.

1197
01:34:03,040 --> 01:34:08,000
So just some kind of retest right here,
and then a continuation to the upside.

1198
01:34:08,640 --> 01:34:15,420
We want to make sure that we're going to
add the position on that retest, that

1199
01:34:15,420 --> 01:34:21,860
we're going to add the position on the
way up, and now we could add the

1200
01:34:21,860 --> 01:34:28,660
on the actual breakout rather than what
we've done here, right? So we don't want

1201
01:34:28,660 --> 01:34:30,380
this breakout by.

1202
01:34:30,740 --> 01:34:37,540
We want the breakout by after the
backing up action when...

1203
01:34:37,980 --> 01:34:44,800
supply is observed at the level of the

1204
01:34:44,800 --> 01:34:45,800
resistance.

1205
01:34:46,440 --> 01:34:48,780
That's what we want to buy.

1206
01:34:49,680 --> 01:34:51,180
Okay, so that's the plan.

1207
01:34:51,420 --> 01:34:53,740
Let's go and see how we can implement
this.

1208
01:34:54,080 --> 01:34:58,280
Okay, great reaction into swing 31.

1209
01:34:58,980 --> 01:35:03,840
Look at the spread. The spread is
diminishing again. What do we see in

1210
01:35:03,840 --> 01:35:06,540
the progression of the closes to the
downside?

1211
01:35:07,400 --> 01:35:08,460
Look at all of this.

1212
01:35:10,400 --> 01:35:15,940
Nothing, right? So we're still in this
area. We're still not going below even

1213
01:35:15,940 --> 01:35:17,260
these levels right here.

1214
01:35:17,480 --> 01:35:20,700
We are at the high or low level on the
closes.

1215
01:35:20,920 --> 01:35:27,860
And every time there is, you know, an
attempt to go below these

1216
01:35:27,860 --> 01:35:30,220
levels, there is a recovery.

1217
01:35:30,460 --> 01:35:31,460
There is a recovery.

1218
01:35:31,700 --> 01:35:32,700
There is a recovery.

1219
01:35:32,860 --> 01:35:34,380
There is a recovery. Recovery.

1220
01:35:34,820 --> 01:35:35,820
Recovery. Recovery.

1221
01:35:38,160 --> 01:35:43,660
So it's as if when we go into the short
-term oversold condition, every time

1222
01:35:43,660 --> 01:35:50,260
institutions are buying, they are
picking up shares at the short

1223
01:35:50,260 --> 01:35:56,760
-term oversold condition where there is
a short -term value for them for their

1224
01:35:56,760 --> 01:35:58,920
long -term bullish scenario.

1225
01:35:59,440 --> 01:36:05,880
So where is our next entry? We would be
thinking after this reaction into swing

1226
01:36:05,880 --> 01:36:06,940
number 31.

1227
01:36:07,640 --> 01:36:13,600
that any close above these levels right
here or going through, you could buy on

1228
01:36:13,600 --> 01:36:18,020
the intraday level, you could buy this
close, you could buy this close, then

1229
01:36:18,020 --> 01:36:20,840
could buy the breakout if it happens.

1230
01:36:21,380 --> 01:36:28,240
So we're already into this position
quite significantly on

1231
01:36:28,240 --> 01:36:30,140
quite a lot of points of entry.

1232
01:36:31,700 --> 01:36:36,480
All of those, one, two, three, four,
five, six, seven, eight, nine.

1233
01:36:36,960 --> 01:36:39,900
10, 11, 12, possibly 13.

1234
01:36:44,300 --> 01:36:50,280
Okay, let's see. Ooh, look at that.
Would we not have that breakout strategy

1235
01:36:50,280 --> 01:36:53,700
working? We probably would not get in on
this bar.

1236
01:36:54,080 --> 01:36:55,300
And look at that bar.

1237
01:36:55,880 --> 01:36:58,540
So beautiful. How would you feel on that
day?

1238
01:36:59,400 --> 01:37:02,020
All of this work would pay off.

1239
01:37:04,200 --> 01:37:10,710
And here is a question of the day what
do you do here

1240
01:37:10,710 --> 01:37:18,510
so

1241
01:37:18,510 --> 01:37:24,470
let's have the poll here do we sell take
profit

1242
01:37:24,470 --> 01:37:31,270
do we hold and kind of go through maybe
a volatility that could come

1243
01:37:31,270 --> 01:37:33,170
um

1244
01:37:35,510 --> 01:37:37,410
Or what? Do we hold?

1245
01:37:38,690 --> 01:37:39,688
Do we sell?

1246
01:37:39,690 --> 01:37:41,190
Do we add to the position?

1247
01:37:43,850 --> 01:37:47,150
Think about this for a second and let me
know. Write it down.

1248
01:37:59,230 --> 01:38:02,910
Okay, so we're definitely again divided.

1249
01:38:04,170 --> 01:38:09,150
Sell, take partial profit, hold. Take
some profit but hold the rest for long

1250
01:38:09,150 --> 01:38:11,990
term. Take my money and run, hold.

1251
01:38:12,290 --> 01:38:15,810
I'm long term, I'd hold. If short term,
I'd sell my position.

1252
01:38:16,450 --> 01:38:19,410
Sell a position, re -enter on a
pullback.

1253
01:38:20,730 --> 01:38:27,690
And I think that all of the answers are
correct because they're going to

1254
01:38:27,690 --> 01:38:33,630
reflect your trading style, your trading
personality, your time frame.

1255
01:38:34,170 --> 01:38:38,350
So I'm going to divide this into two
segments.

1256
01:38:40,950 --> 01:38:47,370
If we're a long -term investor, and this
is the

1257
01:38:47,370 --> 01:38:52,230
predominant position for us that we've
talked about, where we opened here,

1258
01:38:52,430 --> 01:38:59,250
here, here, here, here, here, here,

1259
01:38:59,410 --> 01:39:01,530
here, here, here, here, here, here, and
then here.

1260
01:39:02,320 --> 01:39:07,140
So this is number 13, position number
13. And think about this.

1261
01:39:08,460 --> 01:39:13,620
Let's just say that you're buying 100
shares at each position, right, at each

1262
01:39:13,620 --> 01:39:14,620
place.

1263
01:39:15,160 --> 01:39:18,000
Shares at each entry.

1264
01:39:22,000 --> 01:39:28,940
You don't want to put there like 50 or
100 ,000 right away into this position,

1265
01:39:29,140 --> 01:39:30,140
no.

1266
01:39:30,730 --> 01:39:37,050
You want to be deliberate in the way how
you accumulate and act only on a

1267
01:39:37,050 --> 01:39:43,190
confirmation. All of these entries are
based on confirmation of a certain

1268
01:39:43,190 --> 01:39:45,810
principle that we've discussed.

1269
01:39:49,730 --> 01:39:56,570
So therefore, I would be in 1300 into
this position. So just think about maybe

1270
01:39:56,570 --> 01:39:57,570
like, you know,

1271
01:39:58,420 --> 01:40:05,280
and move from 20 to maybe like $40 from
one point of entry to the point of

1272
01:40:05,280 --> 01:40:06,280
entry number 13.

1273
01:40:07,180 --> 01:40:08,240
That's your commitment.

1274
01:40:10,940 --> 01:40:13,660
Now, for the long -term investor,

1275
01:40:14,020 --> 01:40:20,440
we would be thinking about what? We
would be thinking about

1276
01:40:20,440 --> 01:40:24,260
causality. And our cause is all of this.

1277
01:40:26,060 --> 01:40:28,120
and then all of this.

1278
01:40:31,420 --> 01:40:36,260
So and think also about institutions
that started buying here, right? So this

1279
01:40:36,260 --> 01:40:43,120
one month, second month, third month,
fourth month that they're in

1280
01:40:43,120 --> 01:40:44,120
this position.

1281
01:40:44,460 --> 01:40:50,960
Do you think that institutions that have
billions and trillions of dollars is

1282
01:40:50,960 --> 01:40:52,880
gonna exit the position in four months?

1283
01:40:54,440 --> 01:40:59,360
Do you think they would be interested in
the stock where they go in and then

1284
01:40:59,360 --> 01:41:00,620
they exit so fast?

1285
01:41:01,400 --> 01:41:06,000
And by big institutions, I mean like
Warren Buffett type. Do you think that

1286
01:41:06,000 --> 01:41:10,960
Buffett would be exiting this position
in four months, even if he has so much

1287
01:41:10,960 --> 01:41:13,120
profit, even if the stock doubled?

1288
01:41:19,560 --> 01:41:23,560
Unlikely. This is not who they are. This
is not...

1289
01:41:24,110 --> 01:41:25,510
what they can do.

1290
01:41:26,130 --> 01:41:29,130
Because of their size, they can't move
so fast.

1291
01:41:31,610 --> 01:41:38,390
For some of their clients, like net
worth clientele, the long -term tax

1292
01:41:38,390 --> 01:41:45,390
strategy has to be such that you have to
hold on to certain assets for over a

1293
01:41:45,390 --> 01:41:46,390
year.

1294
01:41:48,850 --> 01:41:49,850
And obviously,

1295
01:41:50,490 --> 01:41:55,610
getting in and out so fast will produce
so much volatility, the profits will

1296
01:41:55,610 --> 01:41:56,610
corrode.

1297
01:41:57,090 --> 01:42:03,950
If they're going to start selling at
this point of time, they might have the

1298
01:42:03,950 --> 01:42:05,890
bar that's probably going to be like
this.

1299
01:42:06,950 --> 01:42:11,170
They don't want to do that. And
obviously there is some selling that's

1300
01:42:11,170 --> 01:42:12,170
on this bar.

1301
01:42:12,970 --> 01:42:16,590
But that's also overcoming a long -term
resistance.

1302
01:42:17,640 --> 01:42:20,380
Think about the long -term breakout
here.

1303
01:42:22,740 --> 01:42:27,840
And on this long -term breakout, we
probably have some kind of late

1304
01:42:27,840 --> 01:42:34,560
institutional buy -in that comes in and
just capitulates

1305
01:42:34,560 --> 01:42:39,020
on this idea in the sense that they have
to be in this idea right now.

1306
01:42:42,340 --> 01:42:48,030
And usually, in a lot of cases, This
type of long -term breakout

1307
01:42:48,030 --> 01:42:51,430
does not define the ending of the move.

1308
01:42:52,410 --> 01:42:59,090
It actually defines, if not the
beginning, but yet could be like not

1309
01:42:59,090 --> 01:43:01,630
middle point of this whole trend.

1310
01:43:03,050 --> 01:43:08,290
Because those institutions that are
getting in still now, they still would

1311
01:43:08,290 --> 01:43:12,490
to hold on to the stock for a
considerable period of time because they

1312
01:43:12,490 --> 01:43:14,350
thinking about...

1313
01:43:17,230 --> 01:43:22,310
Long -term strategists, they're thinking
about turnover in their portfolio, and

1314
01:43:22,310 --> 01:43:24,810
they're thinking about higher valuation
for this stock.

1315
01:43:25,090 --> 01:43:29,670
For them, what has happened is just the
emergence of the uptrend.

1316
01:43:29,890 --> 01:43:33,430
I mean, realistically, where is the end
of this move?

1317
01:43:36,250 --> 01:43:42,310
If we only have had one higher low and
one area

1318
01:43:42,310 --> 01:43:46,110
with a higher high and higher low.

1319
01:43:48,270 --> 01:43:49,710
First time it has happened.

1320
01:43:51,030 --> 01:43:53,630
This is where the trend has been
confirmed.

1321
01:43:58,290 --> 01:44:05,110
So their systems and scans are
screaming, new trend, new

1322
01:44:05,110 --> 01:44:06,110
trend.

1323
01:44:06,350 --> 01:44:07,570
You got to get in.

1324
01:44:08,310 --> 01:44:10,550
So this bar is exactly that.

1325
01:44:11,230 --> 01:44:13,570
They are getting in on that signal.

1326
01:44:13,930 --> 01:44:16,570
And some of them are going to do this.

1327
01:44:17,150 --> 01:44:22,870
So for instance, institutional signal is
going to look like this.

1328
01:44:23,730 --> 01:44:28,770
It's going to create some kind of, you
know, describe some kind of environment.

1329
01:44:30,890 --> 01:44:35,350
And then in this environment, there's
going to be some kind of

1330
01:44:35,350 --> 01:44:38,650
trend confirmation.

1331
01:44:40,350 --> 01:44:43,410
And then there's going to be some kind
of tradable.

1332
01:44:49,799 --> 01:44:56,520
So they're gradually gonna recognize the
opportunity, confirm

1333
01:44:56,520 --> 01:45:00,420
the new trend, and then get in into the
position.

1334
01:45:01,360 --> 01:45:06,520
And that's exactly what's happening
here. So for the long -term investor,

1335
01:45:06,520 --> 01:45:11,000
are 1 ,300 into this position, there is
nothing else to do but just to enjoy

1336
01:45:11,000 --> 01:45:16,040
this day and just hope that we're going
to have a continuation of this day and

1337
01:45:16,040 --> 01:45:22,440
not the reaction right away. But if we
have a reaction, we do want to see some

1338
01:45:22,440 --> 01:45:27,220
kind of absorption that's going to
happen. That's going to confirm that the

1339
01:45:27,220 --> 01:45:30,240
trend is going to continue and we're not
done.

1340
01:45:30,500 --> 01:45:37,480
For the short -term swing trader, this
could

1341
01:45:37,480 --> 01:45:41,320
be the place to consider getting out.

1342
01:45:46,250 --> 01:45:49,370
And I would be thinking here about the
momentum.

1343
01:45:50,310 --> 01:45:54,170
Look at this momentum that we started to
have.

1344
01:45:54,870 --> 01:46:00,070
On the second move to the upside, we're
probably having a much better momentum

1345
01:46:00,070 --> 01:46:01,910
than on the first move to the upside.

1346
01:46:03,010 --> 01:46:09,490
So if we're contextually thinking that
there was a breakout right here and the

1347
01:46:09,490 --> 01:46:10,550
price still went up,

1348
01:46:12,270 --> 01:46:16,530
We're probably thinking that the price
should go up as well, and it probably

1349
01:46:16,530 --> 01:46:23,470
should go up much better just because of
how much better the price travels

1350
01:46:23,470 --> 01:46:27,970
to the upside, and it travels from a
higher level, and it travels from the

1351
01:46:27,970 --> 01:46:29,810
where supply has been observed.

1352
01:46:30,030 --> 01:46:32,210
Look at all of this supply right here.

1353
01:46:32,930 --> 01:46:38,890
It's just going down gradually as the
price starts to go up in the opposite

1354
01:46:38,890 --> 01:46:39,890
direction.

1355
01:46:40,440 --> 01:46:44,740
between the force to the downside and
the result.

1356
01:46:47,180 --> 01:46:52,760
Everything looks bullish. So we want to
get out, but we want to get out at the

1357
01:46:52,760 --> 01:46:57,400
best price here on the swing. So I would
probably measure this bar, the latest

1358
01:46:57,400 --> 01:46:58,400
bar.

1359
01:46:59,560 --> 01:47:02,220
And I would say, okay, where is my one
half?

1360
01:47:02,660 --> 01:47:05,180
I want to have the stop loss just below
that.

1361
01:47:05,520 --> 01:47:07,600
So this is my swing exit.

1362
01:47:09,449 --> 01:47:12,390
I could take some profit here as well.

1363
01:47:13,410 --> 01:47:19,230
There is really nothing wrong about
that. I think that for a swing trade,

1364
01:47:19,230 --> 01:47:23,950
is a really good profit, so take it. If
this is your style, just take it.

1365
01:47:24,730 --> 01:47:30,770
And for those of you who are capable of

1366
01:47:30,770 --> 01:47:36,370
waiting to see what momentum is gonna
bring, just stay in this position.

1367
01:47:37,740 --> 01:47:40,780
and then just move the stop loss as the
price moves up.

1368
01:47:41,820 --> 01:47:43,700
Okay, so here are the next two bars.

1369
01:47:44,280 --> 01:47:49,180
So we didn't go down. We did not, this
bar right here, you cannot see it really

1370
01:47:49,180 --> 01:47:51,980
well, but this is it right here. It's
kind of like this.

1371
01:47:53,040 --> 01:47:55,640
No, I think it's this, like that.

1372
01:47:58,140 --> 01:48:04,580
Nothing really happens, but supply comes
in, and we're seeing that the result to

1373
01:48:04,580 --> 01:48:06,500
the downside is not that great.

1374
01:48:07,040 --> 01:48:08,560
So supply is being observed.

1375
01:48:12,200 --> 01:48:14,680
Therefore, short term bullish.

1376
01:48:16,160 --> 01:48:21,420
We still want to stay in this position.
Next bar, supply comes in again. The

1377
01:48:21,420 --> 01:48:28,120
price goes up first, then comes back,
closes at this level. So yes, some

1378
01:48:28,120 --> 01:48:29,120
increase.

1379
01:48:29,680 --> 01:48:33,820
And here we would be thinking, okay,
yes, we could develop that reaction.

1380
01:48:34,020 --> 01:48:35,020
So let's tie up.

1381
01:48:35,230 --> 01:48:41,070
you know the stop loss so maybe from
here we might put it somewhere here just

1382
01:48:41,070 --> 01:48:47,470
below this bar right here what if we
have a continuation and then the move up

1383
01:48:47,470 --> 01:48:53,350
we don't want to be caught up in this so
somewhere here and i frankly i would

1384
01:48:53,350 --> 01:48:58,050
just keep it below right here and just
allow the price to show me a little bit

1385
01:48:58,050 --> 01:49:04,770
more and i'm basing this on the test
right We've talked about

1386
01:49:04,770 --> 01:49:09,010
how supply occurs in the test and how it
reacts.

1387
01:49:09,270 --> 01:49:13,450
We could have different tests. We could
have this big bar and then the test down

1388
01:49:13,450 --> 01:49:15,530
and then a recovery.

1389
01:49:15,770 --> 01:49:17,610
So we don't want to be caught up in
this.

1390
01:49:17,950 --> 01:49:22,110
But look at how here on the next day the
test is just so mediocre.

1391
01:49:22,490 --> 01:49:24,710
So we still would prefer to stay.

1392
01:49:27,790 --> 01:49:31,950
Okay, and this is what happens next. So
right away we see that there is no

1393
01:49:31,950 --> 01:49:33,150
progression to the downside.

1394
01:49:33,820 --> 01:49:35,140
And this is extremely bullish.

1395
01:49:35,800 --> 01:49:38,440
This is basically a reaction on the
upside.

1396
01:49:38,640 --> 01:49:41,440
If we look at the intraday picture, it
would look something like this.

1397
01:49:49,340 --> 01:49:53,000
So we are in the trading range, which is
up sloping.

1398
01:49:54,420 --> 01:49:59,000
And now I'm thinking, if this is a
reaction,

1399
01:50:01,240 --> 01:50:06,060
upsloping reaction, and we don't see a
lot of emergence of supply.

1400
01:50:09,400 --> 01:50:12,040
I should say no significant supply.

1401
01:50:16,680 --> 01:50:19,760
And it doesn't produce the result to the
downside.

1402
01:50:20,340 --> 01:50:22,900
So this is still extremely bullish.

1403
01:50:25,220 --> 01:50:28,240
And that suggests that the rally is
gonna continue.

1404
01:50:32,750 --> 01:50:36,630
If rally is to continue for a swing
trader, which is going to look for

1405
01:50:36,630 --> 01:50:39,790
opportunity to enter, why wouldn't we?

1406
01:50:42,550 --> 01:50:48,170
And I'm thinking that one -to -one, this
could be a move like that.

1407
01:50:48,690 --> 01:50:52,150
Think about the momentum here that we
have had.

1408
01:50:53,190 --> 01:50:54,390
Institutions are getting in.

1409
01:50:55,850 --> 01:50:57,390
Institutions are getting in again.

1410
01:50:59,790 --> 01:51:06,010
So all of this supply that we have seen
is being observed so quickly and so much

1411
01:51:06,010 --> 01:51:09,390
on the way up, absorption on the way up.

1412
01:51:09,690 --> 01:51:15,590
Okay, so then I'm looking at these bars
and I'm thinking, okay, one, two, three,

1413
01:51:15,630 --> 01:51:16,850
four, five, six.

1414
01:51:18,230 --> 01:51:23,670
And this bar, again, I'm seeing the same
characteristics buying into the close,

1415
01:51:23,830 --> 01:51:27,970
buying into the close. This could be a
phase C in the smaller range. We would

1416
01:51:27,970 --> 01:51:29,130
have to look at the intraday.

1417
01:51:29,690 --> 01:51:34,110
Let's imagine that we're just getting
into this position if there is a

1418
01:51:34,110 --> 01:51:38,610
right here to the upside of this closing
open.

1419
01:51:38,950 --> 01:51:41,870
So if the price goes up, we'll add to
the position.

1420
01:51:42,130 --> 01:51:46,130
This could be also, you know, long -term
investor strategy as well. Not

1421
01:51:46,130 --> 01:51:47,810
necessarily, but it could be.

1422
01:51:50,210 --> 01:51:53,270
And here we would be adding less shares.

1423
01:51:53,960 --> 01:51:58,600
then you know on any on the way up we
were adding by 100 shares we could just

1424
01:51:58,600 --> 01:52:04,560
add another hundred let's see what
happens next okay so breakout we

1425
01:52:04,560 --> 01:52:11,380
in in the position right here and again
we look at this bar yes there is some

1426
01:52:11,380 --> 01:52:17,120
supply that's coming in but it's not a
big distributional pattern

1427
01:52:17,120 --> 01:52:20,720
not a distributional

1428
01:52:21,740 --> 01:52:24,580
supply signature here by any means.

1429
01:52:26,460 --> 01:52:29,540
In fact, the bar goes up, it looks very
bullish.

1430
01:52:30,640 --> 01:52:35,660
This smallest reaction could suggest
that we are going to have some kind of

1431
01:52:35,660 --> 01:52:42,580
reaction, but think about how reactions
have developed before in this

1432
01:52:42,580 --> 01:52:49,040
uptrend. So you can't really think about
these situations anymore because why?

1433
01:52:49,200 --> 01:52:50,660
This is a trading range.

1434
01:52:51,200 --> 01:52:55,080
You have to think about this situation
and this situation and this situation.

1435
01:52:55,280 --> 01:52:56,280
Why?

1436
01:52:56,900 --> 01:52:58,760
Because this is an uptrend.

1437
01:53:00,880 --> 01:53:06,220
It's a different environment. You can't
compare anything to the trading range

1438
01:53:06,220 --> 01:53:07,220
anymore.

1439
01:53:07,560 --> 01:53:11,680
You're only comparing the movements that
are in the new environment.

1440
01:53:12,100 --> 01:53:14,560
So how did the tops develop?

1441
01:53:15,000 --> 01:53:20,780
They usually would require some time,
would have some kind of stopping.

1442
01:53:21,160 --> 01:53:28,160
action first and then some supply might
occur so and this is what we're looking

1443
01:53:28,160 --> 01:53:34,980
for right a possible stop in action low
supply is it the possible

1444
01:53:34,980 --> 01:53:41,740
stop in action so this is how we're
stopping the supply maybe so i

1445
01:53:41,740 --> 01:53:45,820
would just see i would just wait as to
you know what kind of bar we're going to

1446
01:53:45,820 --> 01:53:46,820
have next

1447
01:53:47,630 --> 01:53:52,030
And my stop loss probably would be just
below this bar right here for a swing

1448
01:53:52,030 --> 01:53:55,630
trade. So this is a stop loss swing.

1449
01:53:57,150 --> 01:54:03,750
And then I would have a stop loss, long
-term stop loss right here.

1450
01:54:04,710 --> 01:54:09,750
We'll talk about this. There was a
question here from Justin. Will we go

1451
01:54:09,750 --> 01:54:11,350
-depth on interest in this course?

1452
01:54:11,690 --> 01:54:14,990
Yes, we are going to have one session
where we're going to talk about the

1453
01:54:14,990 --> 01:54:15,990
Wyckoff trading plan.

1454
01:54:16,380 --> 01:54:20,560
And there we'll talk about the interest
also. I will show you Wyckoff entries

1455
01:54:20,560 --> 01:54:23,000
and what I've developed for myself.

1456
01:54:24,060 --> 01:54:29,600
And in the practical, this is where
we're going to go into much more

1457
01:54:29,720 --> 01:54:35,360
This is where the depth of this
understanding of the point of interest

1458
01:54:35,360 --> 01:54:36,259
to be developed.

1459
01:54:36,260 --> 01:54:39,740
But for now, these are the stop losses
that I would be thinking of.

1460
01:54:40,720 --> 01:54:44,840
If we're going to have some kind of
bearish action, swing trade is out

1461
01:54:44,840 --> 01:54:45,840
immediately.

1462
01:54:47,470 --> 01:54:48,890
Let's see what happens next.

1463
01:54:49,410 --> 01:54:52,430
Oh, well, this is where we were.

1464
01:54:52,650 --> 01:54:57,690
And I'm so happy that we didn't react
right away to some

1465
01:54:57,690 --> 01:55:03,490
minor signs of supply on the tail.

1466
01:55:04,470 --> 01:55:09,710
Again, you're in such a bullish pattern.
Why would you be thinking about bearish

1467
01:55:09,710 --> 01:55:14,730
picture on such a smaller scale? You
should be thinking that every time.

1468
01:55:15,320 --> 01:55:18,700
We have some short -term supply coming
in. It's going to be observed.

1469
01:55:19,020 --> 01:55:23,900
And until it's not, that's when you're
going to get out of the position, right?

1470
01:55:24,180 --> 01:55:30,100
You need to see a change of character, a
change of behavior to

1471
01:55:30,100 --> 01:55:33,900
confirm that you need to get out.

1472
01:55:34,380 --> 01:55:39,740
You don't have to take the profit right
away. If anything, the majority of

1473
01:55:39,740 --> 01:55:41,920
amateur traders are...

1474
01:55:43,120 --> 01:55:48,960
getting out of the positions, of winning
positions, not losing positions, but

1475
01:55:48,960 --> 01:55:51,960
winning positions, much faster than they
should.

1476
01:55:53,020 --> 01:55:57,540
If we would have get out on this bar for
a swing trade, we would not enjoy this

1477
01:55:57,540 --> 01:55:58,540
round.

1478
01:55:59,640 --> 01:56:05,820
And I think it's on this bar right here,
this is where we are starting to be

1479
01:56:05,820 --> 01:56:10,000
a little bit concerned because this is
where the volume signature is so high.

1480
01:56:10,760 --> 01:56:16,780
And we had the previous bar that was a
really great bar for us. It reminds us

1481
01:56:16,780 --> 01:56:20,000
this bar right here. It reminds us maybe
of this bar right here.

1482
01:56:21,080 --> 01:56:23,660
Those are like concluding bars.

1483
01:56:23,980 --> 01:56:26,520
Those are the bars that come before the
reaction.

1484
01:56:26,740 --> 01:56:31,140
And we see that the next bar, we have
that increase in the volume signature.

1485
01:56:31,260 --> 01:56:33,040
This is the third highest volume bar.

1486
01:56:33,380 --> 01:56:38,220
And yet, even with that, look what
supply can do.

1487
01:56:38,730 --> 01:56:45,510
So we've traveled all of this, and yet
we reacted and closed

1488
01:56:45,510 --> 01:56:49,510
on that bar and negated only this much.

1489
01:56:50,110 --> 01:56:57,010
We're in the topper portion of this
reaction. And then again, next bar,

1490
01:56:57,190 --> 01:57:03,910
buying into the close, next bar, buying
into the close,

1491
01:57:04,070 --> 01:57:06,190
but the largest supply.

1492
01:57:06,970 --> 01:57:08,350
is being shown to us.

1493
01:57:09,190 --> 01:57:16,190
So this is where we definitely could
consider for a swing trader to get

1494
01:57:16,190 --> 01:57:17,190
out.

1495
01:57:18,150 --> 01:57:23,250
Whether you are getting out on this bar
right here, on the next bar, or on the

1496
01:57:23,250 --> 01:57:25,130
next bar, it doesn't really matter.

1497
01:57:25,350 --> 01:57:31,390
You have enough profit here to boast
about this trade for the rest of your

1498
01:57:31,590 --> 01:57:33,770
If you would conduct this type of trade,

1499
01:57:35,370 --> 01:57:38,970
let's say up to here, this is going to
be a fantastic trade.

1500
01:57:39,990 --> 01:57:45,290
For the long -term investor, I think
it's reasonable to start thinking about

1501
01:57:45,290 --> 01:57:47,310
maybe taking some profits.

1502
01:57:48,910 --> 01:57:54,390
But at the same time, I think also the
long -term investor will be questioning

1503
01:57:54,390 --> 01:58:01,370
whether this is still a good stock long
-term. Again, think about

1504
01:58:01,370 --> 01:58:03,070
what has transpired here.

1505
01:58:03,450 --> 01:58:04,710
In about...

1506
01:58:05,150 --> 01:58:12,030
one, two, three, four, five months,
we've made so much progress

1507
01:58:12,030 --> 01:58:13,030
to the upside.

1508
01:58:13,090 --> 01:58:15,410
We have made so much money.

1509
01:58:17,650 --> 01:58:23,210
Do you think that institutions are going
to get out those Warren Buffett types?

1510
01:58:24,270 --> 01:58:30,830
Probably not. They're probably going to
start distributing at the point of

1511
01:58:30,830 --> 01:58:31,830
extreme valuation.

1512
01:58:32,880 --> 01:58:37,760
And this could be just a short -term
spike where we could have some kind of

1513
01:58:37,760 --> 01:58:43,620
reaction, maybe a reaccumulation range,
and they still would hold on to the

1514
01:58:43,620 --> 01:58:48,620
supply. They would not present it. So
it's through the trading range that's

1515
01:58:48,620 --> 01:58:50,620
going to create the distributional
qualities.

1516
01:58:51,100 --> 01:58:56,060
This is where the long -term investor
will make that decision to close out

1517
01:58:56,060 --> 01:58:58,360
position completely. We still don't have
that.

1518
01:58:58,740 --> 01:59:00,980
Even the short -term bars here.

1519
01:59:01,630 --> 01:59:06,630
have bullish characteristics rather than
long -term bullish characteristics and

1520
01:59:06,630 --> 01:59:10,950
short -term bearish characteristics
rather than short -term bearish and long

1521
01:59:10,950 --> 01:59:11,829
-term bearish.

1522
01:59:11,830 --> 01:59:16,290
So there is no synchronicity in the time
frames for the downward movement.

1523
01:59:16,670 --> 01:59:21,450
But the only thing that this picture
suggests is that we're going to have

1524
01:59:21,450 --> 01:59:25,770
kind of either reaction or a trading
range. And it's in this trading range,

1525
01:59:25,770 --> 01:59:28,190
is where we need to decide what we're
going to do.

1526
01:59:28,940 --> 01:59:30,660
if the distribution is developing.

1527
01:59:30,900 --> 01:59:31,900
Okay, well, let's see.

1528
01:59:33,420 --> 01:59:35,920
Ooh, that doesn't look distributional.

1529
01:59:37,480 --> 01:59:44,220
That actually looks maybe like a trading
range, maybe phase

1530
01:59:44,220 --> 01:59:47,560
A, maybe phase B type of upthrust.

1531
01:59:47,780 --> 01:59:53,180
So we're seeing how the demand signature
is diminishing, but whatever supply has

1532
01:59:53,180 --> 01:59:55,540
come in, it's only on one bar.

1533
01:59:56,280 --> 01:59:57,760
There is nothing else.

1534
01:59:59,080 --> 02:00:02,840
So therefore, we are thinking that maybe
like with the backing up action, we're

1535
02:00:02,840 --> 02:00:06,780
going to have some kind of reaction to
the downside

1536
02:00:06,780 --> 02:00:13,780
and maybe to the support area as well.
So either a

1537
02:00:13,780 --> 02:00:16,280
trading range or maybe a high, low, and
a continuation.

1538
02:00:18,180 --> 02:00:21,480
So we'll have to see. If there's going
to be a continuation, we're probably

1539
02:00:21,480 --> 02:00:23,240
going to reestablish a swing position.

1540
02:00:24,300 --> 02:00:25,300
Here is that.

1541
02:00:27,440 --> 02:00:29,860
trading range idea or a reaction idea.

1542
02:00:30,280 --> 02:00:32,520
We see how supply is diminishing.

1543
02:00:33,120 --> 02:00:35,440
The spread is diminishing as well.

1544
02:00:35,680 --> 02:00:37,020
So that's bullish again.

1545
02:00:38,300 --> 02:00:41,880
That probably suggests a higher low
rather than a trading range.

1546
02:00:42,280 --> 02:00:47,900
So if we're going to get out, we want to
open a position somewhere here and then

1547
02:00:47,900 --> 02:00:49,820
we want to open the position somewhere
here.

1548
02:00:50,740 --> 02:00:55,580
For the long -term investor, you don't
have to do anything. You could just kind

1549
02:00:55,580 --> 02:00:56,580
of enjoy it.

1550
02:00:56,750 --> 02:01:03,590
have your stop loss below a very
significant commitment to the

1551
02:01:03,590 --> 02:01:09,410
upside. That would be your given up
catastrophic stop loss point.

1552
02:01:11,910 --> 02:01:13,310
Let's see what happens.

1553
02:01:14,410 --> 02:01:20,990
Okay, so we would get into this position
on this bar and then right here. And

1554
02:01:20,990 --> 02:01:22,210
this would be a swing position.

1555
02:01:22,450 --> 02:01:24,010
I've slowed in trading range.

1556
02:01:24,620 --> 02:01:29,640
which reminds us of the previous analog,
suggesting that we still might actually

1557
02:01:29,640 --> 02:01:31,260
have another move to the upside.

1558
02:01:31,960 --> 02:01:36,000
If it's going to be a climactic move,
then we are definitely out.

1559
02:01:37,020 --> 02:01:41,900
Even the long -term investor would be
thinking at that point that this is just

1560
02:01:41,900 --> 02:01:43,100
too much too fast.

1561
02:01:43,520 --> 02:01:44,940
So let's see what happens.

1562
02:01:46,660 --> 02:01:47,740
Here we are.

1563
02:01:48,200 --> 02:01:51,660
Here is that last two points of entries
for us.

1564
02:01:53,480 --> 02:01:58,360
and a big, big, big run to the upside.

1565
02:02:00,580 --> 02:02:05,920
And on this run, we would be looking at
all of these bars and we would be

1566
02:02:05,920 --> 02:02:06,759
thinking, okay,

1567
02:02:06,760 --> 02:02:13,740
the bar with

1568
02:02:13,740 --> 02:02:15,400
the largest volume signature

1569
02:02:22,889 --> 02:02:29,410
usually would suggest some kind of top
information that is coming.

1570
02:02:30,190 --> 02:02:34,490
And look how we're still continuing to
the upside, but the demand is

1571
02:02:34,490 --> 02:02:40,970
diminishing. So here we're just using
simple stop loss movement

1572
02:02:40,970 --> 02:02:45,870
strategies where we're just moving the
stop loss based on the low and one half

1573
02:02:45,870 --> 02:02:49,450
of the bar, depending on how you're
going to manage this bar.

1574
02:02:49,790 --> 02:02:51,610
You still could be in this position.

1575
02:02:52,720 --> 02:02:56,320
Right here, this is that break to the
downside.

1576
02:02:56,520 --> 02:03:00,640
This is stop loss number two.

1577
02:03:02,680 --> 02:03:09,340
And a red bar, a reactionary bar, could
be a stop loss or

1578
02:03:09,340 --> 02:03:16,200
rather exit number one. And then on the
way up, you could

1579
02:03:16,200 --> 02:03:17,200
play this.

1580
02:03:17,760 --> 02:03:20,760
You could start playing this more on the

1581
02:03:21,760 --> 02:03:27,980
intraday basis as the price goes up and
exit it somewhere here as there is an

1582
02:03:27,980 --> 02:03:29,700
attempt to go up and then the reversal.

1583
02:03:30,000 --> 02:03:33,900
There are quite a lot of methods here
that you could use to get out.

1584
02:03:35,680 --> 02:03:41,940
But let's just say for the long -term
trader, we want to see the signs

1585
02:03:41,940 --> 02:03:43,640
of the distribution.

1586
02:03:44,680 --> 02:03:49,300
We still would not see the signs of the
distribution on the way up.

1587
02:03:49,760 --> 02:03:52,180
We see the climactic run,

1588
02:03:52,480 --> 02:03:59,400
which suggests a

1589
02:03:59,400 --> 02:04:02,580
stop in action and suggests a trading
range.

1590
02:04:02,840 --> 02:04:06,000
And then we have to figure out what the
bias is.

1591
02:04:06,220 --> 02:04:13,160
And if the bias is bearish, we want to
get out, exit

1592
02:04:13,160 --> 02:04:16,720
the position at the most optimal places.

1593
02:04:20,410 --> 02:04:23,150
Okay, so let's say swing trader is out.

1594
02:04:23,970 --> 02:04:27,130
Then the long -term investor, what are
we doing here?

1595
02:04:27,810 --> 02:04:28,810
Well, look at this bar.

1596
02:04:30,090 --> 02:04:36,250
What is this bar on such volume
signature? This is the highest supply

1597
02:04:36,250 --> 02:04:37,510
throughout this whole chart.

1598
02:04:39,530 --> 02:04:46,470
We see the synchronicity of immense

1599
02:04:46,470 --> 02:04:48,730
effort to the downside.

1600
02:04:51,200 --> 02:04:56,560
with the largest downward result.

1601
02:04:59,320 --> 02:05:02,300
And this bar acts as a change of
character bar.

1602
02:05:03,840 --> 02:05:10,600
It also acts as a part of a possible
automatic rally,

1603
02:05:10,820 --> 02:05:16,440
I'm sorry, reaction, either in the
reaccumulation or a distribution.

1604
02:05:16,840 --> 02:05:22,380
The volume signature and the way how the
effort is synced with the results such

1605
02:05:22,380 --> 02:05:25,060
as that this might be a distribution.

1606
02:05:25,520 --> 02:05:31,500
If this is a distribution, then for the
long -term investor, our most optimal

1607
02:05:31,500 --> 02:05:36,520
exit points are actually not right here.
If we didn't exit it right here, we're

1608
02:05:36,520 --> 02:05:38,280
losing a lot of ground here.

1609
02:05:38,660 --> 02:05:43,380
So what we want to do is we want to see
where the automatic reaction is going to

1610
02:05:43,380 --> 02:05:49,180
end, and then we want to get out on the
way up into the secondary test.

1611
02:05:50,030 --> 02:05:54,870
Now, thinking about this whole move to
the upside, we're definitely thinking

1612
02:05:54,870 --> 02:05:56,610
that this is a leadership stock.

1613
02:05:57,610 --> 02:06:02,030
So with the leadership stock
distribution, we're usually going to

1614
02:06:02,030 --> 02:06:06,710
picture where we're going to see some
kind of higher highs, higher lows

1615
02:06:06,710 --> 02:06:13,530
environment just because of this whole
move up and how much short -term value

1616
02:06:13,530 --> 02:06:15,870
being observed by weekends.

1617
02:06:16,940 --> 02:06:22,240
So the best points of exit in the
leadership stock is going to be above

1618
02:06:22,240 --> 02:06:26,760
of the climactic action, around the area
where the upthrust happens.

1619
02:06:27,940 --> 02:06:33,960
So we want to get out somewhere here now
that we missed that opportunity. If not

1620
02:06:33,960 --> 02:06:37,580
here, then here, or maybe here.

1621
02:06:37,880 --> 02:06:42,000
And obviously the most optimal is just
going to be exiting right here and just

1622
02:06:42,000 --> 02:06:43,200
be done with this, go away.

1623
02:06:44,280 --> 02:06:46,060
We don't need a better price.

1624
02:06:46,650 --> 02:06:53,270
Because the time in this position is
going to play not in our favor, not only

1625
02:06:53,270 --> 02:06:59,810
from the optimal point of view in terms
of when we exit, but also in terms of

1626
02:06:59,810 --> 02:07:04,550
the increased volatility that we could
see in the trading range as people start

1627
02:07:04,550 --> 02:07:05,870
dumping their positions.

1628
02:07:07,050 --> 02:07:12,350
So we don't want to be caught up in that
volatility, but we already are if we

1629
02:07:12,350 --> 02:07:15,730
didn't exit it earlier. So let's just
assume that we haven't.

1630
02:07:16,750 --> 02:07:19,810
Okay, here we go. Next couple of bars.

1631
02:07:20,490 --> 02:07:25,230
Into the close, buying into the close,
buying into the close, buying into the

1632
02:07:25,230 --> 02:07:26,650
close, first time sink.

1633
02:07:26,930 --> 02:07:30,390
So this means that most likely from here
we're going to go up.

1634
02:07:32,630 --> 02:07:38,870
And we are. You could exit here, but
again, thinking about the leadership

1635
02:07:38,870 --> 02:07:44,290
characteristics, it's better to wait
when the price comes back and exit

1636
02:07:44,290 --> 02:07:45,290
somewhere here.

1637
02:07:45,960 --> 02:07:50,760
rather than in the middle of the trading
range, right? Because now we're

1638
02:07:50,760 --> 02:07:52,460
thinking this is the range right here.

1639
02:07:56,480 --> 02:08:03,400
Okay, well, let's look at some of the
bars here. I

1640
02:08:03,400 --> 02:08:06,260
mentioned that there is a buying into
the close.

1641
02:08:08,620 --> 02:08:12,720
This bar actually is really good. That
suggests that there is short -term

1642
02:08:12,720 --> 02:08:14,080
momentum to the upside.

1643
02:08:14,360 --> 02:08:17,420
So that suggests that we might actually
touch this high.

1644
02:08:18,960 --> 02:08:23,900
Supply signature is diminishing, so the
test could be as a high or low.

1645
02:08:24,480 --> 02:08:28,400
So maybe something like this. So our
goal is just to get to this point.

1646
02:08:31,040 --> 02:08:32,140
Here we are.

1647
02:08:32,740 --> 02:08:35,660
Next bar at the end of swing 37.

1648
02:08:36,730 --> 02:08:41,630
Again, increasing the volume signature,
suggesting that there is an increase in

1649
02:08:41,630 --> 02:08:44,430
the demand, and then buying into the
close, so that's great.

1650
02:08:45,910 --> 02:08:51,590
Confirmation, confirmation,
confirmation, and here we are.

1651
02:08:52,330 --> 02:08:58,010
So it's right here where we might be
thinking, okay, well, now let's look at

1652
02:08:58,010 --> 02:08:59,010
this whole reaction.

1653
02:09:00,650 --> 02:09:04,890
I mean, we could just literally relax a
little bit if we're a long -term

1654
02:09:04,890 --> 02:09:09,070
investor and we're still holding about,
what, 1 ,500 of shares at this point.

1655
02:09:12,170 --> 02:09:16,830
Why are we so relaxed here? Well, we're
not so relaxed. We are very alert.

1656
02:09:17,150 --> 02:09:22,650
But we are relaxed that the price where
we were supposed to get out is actually

1657
02:09:22,650 --> 02:09:23,710
above that point.

1658
02:09:24,730 --> 02:09:29,010
And this is the moment where greed is
going to come in and you're going to

1659
02:09:29,050 --> 02:09:29,999
hmm.

1660
02:09:30,000 --> 02:09:31,000
Maybe not.

1661
02:09:31,140 --> 02:09:35,000
Okay, well, you know, you could hold on
to this. Maybe there's going to be

1662
02:09:35,000 --> 02:09:39,520
another opportunity to get out. But
again, it's all about the efficiency at

1663
02:09:39,520 --> 02:09:40,520
point of time.

1664
02:09:40,640 --> 02:09:47,060
When you look at the initial reaction,
what do you see?

1665
02:09:48,760 --> 02:09:55,720
Almost all of the gains that we have had
on the previous rally have been

1666
02:09:55,720 --> 02:09:57,180
negated.

1667
02:09:58,670 --> 02:10:00,510
So this is a bearish sign.

1668
02:10:02,550 --> 02:10:08,430
And it happened on somewhat of a
significant volume signature.

1669
02:10:10,070 --> 02:10:15,190
Remember back then when we looked at the
distribution signature, we had a

1670
02:10:15,190 --> 02:10:20,310
climactic run into, I believe, point
number 13 or 14.

1671
02:10:22,950 --> 02:10:26,270
Was it that? No, that was around 30, I
believe.

1672
02:10:27,500 --> 02:10:33,600
And then we had multiple bars that
looked like this. And then we've talked

1673
02:10:33,600 --> 02:10:39,300
the consistent selling on

1674
02:10:39,300 --> 02:10:42,540
a change of character.

1675
02:10:44,200 --> 02:10:45,700
And it looked like this.

1676
02:10:47,620 --> 02:10:50,780
They are selling, selling, selling,
selling.

1677
02:10:51,080 --> 02:10:52,440
And then they stopped selling.

1678
02:10:52,890 --> 02:10:54,710
So they sold some of their position.

1679
02:10:54,950 --> 02:10:59,030
You could clearly see this. This is only
institutions that could produce that

1680
02:10:59,030 --> 02:11:04,890
type of price signature, you know,
together with the volume signature here.

1681
02:11:08,090 --> 02:11:09,290
So they sold.

1682
02:11:09,530 --> 02:11:14,470
Then there is a test, successful test
that suggests a short -term rally.

1683
02:11:15,290 --> 02:11:19,670
And as the price goes up, we would be
expecting that there's going to be some

1684
02:11:19,670 --> 02:11:25,640
more selling because what they are
basically doing, As the price goes up,

1685
02:11:25,660 --> 02:11:28,160
they're saying, oh, okay, let's sell
into the strength.

1686
02:11:34,620 --> 02:11:39,220
And they sell into this strength as the
price goes up, and then the selling

1687
02:11:39,220 --> 02:11:43,940
continues. And at some point, it starts
to produce the movement to the downside

1688
02:11:43,940 --> 02:11:49,200
because the buyers no longer can support
all of the selling by the CEO.

1689
02:11:49,860 --> 02:11:50,920
And that's when

1690
02:11:53,169 --> 02:11:59,830
synchronicity becomes so evident that on
the selling by institutions, the price

1691
02:11:59,830 --> 02:12:03,230
moves down. When this happens, what do
you think they're going to do?

1692
02:12:03,570 --> 02:12:05,030
They're going to stop selling.

1693
02:12:05,250 --> 02:12:10,010
Well, there is still some selling here,
but generally they're going to start

1694
02:12:10,010 --> 02:12:16,650
selling less because they see how the
price is becoming unattractive to them

1695
02:12:16,650 --> 02:12:19,570
sell at those levels.

1696
02:12:20,400 --> 02:12:24,960
they want better pricing. So they're
going to stop selling for a second. And

1697
02:12:24,960 --> 02:12:28,180
that's what's going to produce
diminishing supply signature.

1698
02:12:28,660 --> 02:12:31,540
And with that, the price is going to
start traveling up.

1699
02:12:31,960 --> 02:12:36,780
But once it's again in the area of where
they started selling, they might start

1700
02:12:36,780 --> 02:12:37,780
selling again.

1701
02:12:37,800 --> 02:12:43,700
So they are selling in the specific
price levels on the way up and on the

1702
02:12:43,700 --> 02:12:48,540
down. So now they could be starting
selling again on the way up on this

1703
02:12:48,540 --> 02:12:54,710
bar. And then on the way down, let's see
if that is actually what's going to

1704
02:12:54,710 --> 02:12:56,110
happen. Okay, yes.

1705
02:12:56,710 --> 02:12:59,530
So both of the bars see some selling.

1706
02:12:59,750 --> 02:13:03,030
There is some buying as well right here.

1707
02:13:03,470 --> 02:13:09,930
These two bars have some selling behind
it. We just committed temporarily,

1708
02:13:10,210 --> 02:13:15,170
and then we instantly came back into the
trading range below the resistance.

1709
02:13:15,330 --> 02:13:16,650
What does this remind you of?

1710
02:13:17,570 --> 02:13:18,610
An upthrust.

1711
02:13:19,400 --> 02:13:23,760
Okay, now we're thinking, okay, where
are we in terms of the structure of

1712
02:13:23,760 --> 02:13:26,900
A? Up thrust usually is a function of
phase B.

1713
02:13:27,340 --> 02:13:31,880
Okay, and now we're seeing a higher
high, a higher low.

1714
02:13:32,140 --> 02:13:36,800
So maybe this is more of the like up
sloping structure, something like this.

1715
02:13:37,260 --> 02:13:41,020
So if we're going to go down, we might
create another higher low. Again, think

1716
02:13:41,020 --> 02:13:44,720
about the leadership stock and how the
leadership stocks are being distributed.

1717
02:13:45,760 --> 02:13:51,520
and then maybe go if this is phase b
maybe go into phase c right here

1718
02:13:51,520 --> 02:13:58,360
like this so we have to mitigate our
position i would

1719
02:13:58,360 --> 02:14:04,100
say that probably at this point of time
we're either out or if you're more

1720
02:14:04,100 --> 02:14:08,700
conservative you could just say okay
well give me the last chance you know

1721
02:14:08,700 --> 02:14:12,440
me out somewhere here in the middle of
the range this is not the most efficient

1722
02:14:12,440 --> 02:14:15,480
place but still You have a lot of
profit.

1723
02:14:15,880 --> 02:14:18,600
Somebody might be waiting for phase C.

1724
02:14:18,920 --> 02:14:24,980
My preference is always be all about
efficiency, right? So get out here. If

1725
02:14:24,980 --> 02:14:31,580
cannot get out at this two spots, start
getting out right here based on your

1726
02:14:31,580 --> 02:14:32,880
analysis. And that's it.

1727
02:14:33,700 --> 02:14:36,040
Okay. Well, let's assume that we are
out.

1728
02:14:38,360 --> 02:14:42,940
And we're seeing that this high -low
reaction.

1729
02:14:47,910 --> 02:14:54,890
is just still suggesting that there is
still some value, short -term value,

1730
02:14:55,170 --> 02:14:57,110
for some of the institutions.

1731
02:14:57,810 --> 02:15:00,170
And this could be weak hands value.

1732
02:15:01,270 --> 02:15:08,090
And as the price gets out, we are maybe
even getting nervous. Did we

1733
02:15:08,090 --> 02:15:14,110
make a mistake? There is so much
momentum here. Could it just actually go

1734
02:15:14,110 --> 02:15:16,070
higher on the same type of move?

1735
02:15:16,590 --> 02:15:23,110
and then we're not in the position so um
where is that you know uh doubt on

1736
02:15:23,110 --> 02:15:28,190
is going to go away on on which
confirmation well looking at the volume

1737
02:15:28,190 --> 02:15:33,530
signature what we're seeing is that if
this is the breakout it happens on

1738
02:15:33,530 --> 02:15:39,310
diminishing volume signature so then the
question is why

1739
02:15:39,310 --> 02:15:44,910
is of movement not on the breakout we
don't want to see this on the breakout

1740
02:15:46,640 --> 02:15:52,220
probably when the volume goes down and
the price commits like this, it's

1741
02:15:52,220 --> 02:15:56,100
probably all about weak hands trying to
push the price up like this on their

1742
02:15:56,100 --> 02:15:57,099
buys.

1743
02:15:57,100 --> 02:16:01,240
We still see that there are a lot of
institutional selling has happened here.

1744
02:16:06,660 --> 02:16:09,520
And the next thing, if this is a
distribution,

1745
02:16:14,250 --> 02:16:18,730
We need to see one thing to happen
before we open, let's say, a short

1746
02:16:20,090 --> 02:16:25,870
We need to see a synchronicity between

1747
02:16:25,870 --> 02:16:32,469
increased effort to the

1748
02:16:32,469 --> 02:16:36,410
downside and increased result to the
downside.

1749
02:16:36,690 --> 02:16:42,490
At this point, we're going to define the
timing of our

1750
02:16:44,720 --> 02:16:47,160
short position point of entry.

1751
02:16:47,959 --> 02:16:50,260
This would be the key for us.

1752
02:16:50,480 --> 02:16:51,680
We don't see it yet.

1753
02:16:52,320 --> 02:16:55,320
It's more feels like we had a big run
up.

1754
02:16:55,620 --> 02:17:00,260
Some of the institutional selling came
in and the weak hands are trying to push

1755
02:17:00,260 --> 02:17:03,120
the price up just based on the previous
leadership characteristics.

1756
02:17:03,799 --> 02:17:08,900
This is not enough for us because we
want whatever supply has came in.

1757
02:17:09,389 --> 02:17:14,830
to be tested at the same price level, so
close to that, and to have some kind of

1758
02:17:14,830 --> 02:17:16,709
institutional volume signature.

1759
02:17:17,389 --> 02:17:19,370
Okay, so let's see what happens next.

1760
02:17:22,309 --> 02:17:27,430
Okay, big bar to the downside. Again,
this is something that we don't

1761
02:17:27,430 --> 02:17:33,090
necessarily want to see in a bullish
scenario, right? We said that at the

1762
02:17:33,090 --> 02:17:34,490
of swing number 38,

1763
02:17:35,260 --> 02:17:39,639
The price commits temporarily to the
upside and then comes back into the

1764
02:17:39,639 --> 02:17:45,900
range. On swing number 40, commits to
the upside on diminishing volume

1765
02:17:45,900 --> 02:17:52,879
and then instantly comes back as a
reversal bar and closing below the low

1766
02:17:52,879 --> 02:17:57,280
of the previous bar on even lower supply
signature.

1767
02:17:57,700 --> 02:17:59,440
So this is your...

1768
02:17:59,740 --> 02:18:05,760
true ease of movement when the price
commits to the downside this is not an

1769
02:18:05,760 --> 02:18:10,860
of movement because the price did not
commit below it only tried to do so in

1770
02:18:10,860 --> 02:18:17,840
intraday and then came back into the
close here we are closing below so what

1771
02:18:17,840 --> 02:18:24,200
does that suggest ease of movement it
says that demand is poor at this point

1772
02:18:24,200 --> 02:18:27,139
supply dimension supply

1773
02:18:28,059 --> 02:18:29,540
can move the price down.

1774
02:18:30,559 --> 02:18:31,700
Bullish or bearish?

1775
02:18:31,980 --> 02:18:33,260
Definitely bearish.

1776
02:18:34,059 --> 02:18:40,959
But if this is bearish, still think
upthrust that we might have

1777
02:18:40,959 --> 02:18:42,260
some kind of test here.

1778
02:18:42,620 --> 02:18:47,980
And the reason why I'm saying this, the
test should come, is just because of the

1779
02:18:47,980 --> 02:18:50,680
still leadership characteristics of what
we see.

1780
02:18:51,200 --> 02:18:55,299
Imagine a lot of people are still in
this position because they're

1781
02:18:55,299 --> 02:18:59,290
this. a higher high, higher low uptrend
situation.

1782
02:19:01,209 --> 02:19:07,870
And we can't blame them because I think
as much as technical analysis

1783
02:19:07,870 --> 02:19:14,830
is trying to establish itself in the
field of finance as a relevant and

1784
02:19:14,830 --> 02:19:20,590
source of the analysis outcome type of
approach,

1785
02:19:20,990 --> 02:19:23,930
there are a lot of beliefs.

1786
02:19:24,590 --> 02:19:31,150
that over 100 years were confirmed and
reconfirmed by so many teachers,

1787
02:19:31,490 --> 02:19:37,530
believes in technical analysis that if
it's a higher high, higher low, it's an

1788
02:19:37,530 --> 02:19:42,990
uptrend. But what it doesn't say is such
belief that even in those type of

1789
02:19:42,990 --> 02:19:47,930
contextual situations where we see
higher highs and higher lows, we still

1790
02:19:47,930 --> 02:19:48,930
be in the distribution.

1791
02:19:49,110 --> 02:19:52,030
And oh boy, there are so many examples
of this.

1792
02:19:52,490 --> 02:19:56,530
even in the most recent move to the
downside that we had into the December

1793
02:19:57,010 --> 02:20:02,770
Go to those charts in that area, in that
period, and look at those charts again.

1794
02:20:03,010 --> 02:20:07,930
Look at the stocks like Navadir, you
know, that has been a leadership stock

1795
02:20:07,930 --> 02:20:09,590
years and years and years.

1796
02:20:09,890 --> 02:20:13,610
Look at the distribution that took place
there. Look at Apple.

1797
02:20:13,950 --> 02:20:17,710
That was going up for years and years
and decades, really.

1798
02:20:18,690 --> 02:20:20,790
And look at the distribution right
there.

1799
02:20:21,550 --> 02:20:25,450
And it's still a short -term
distribution. We still don't know what's

1800
02:20:25,450 --> 02:20:29,970
happen next because there are some
bullish characteristics there. This

1801
02:20:29,970 --> 02:20:34,090
just a reaction in a still much longer
trend. We still need to figure this out.

1802
02:20:35,970 --> 02:20:42,590
But one of the things that I'm trying to
change in your mental

1803
02:20:42,590 --> 02:20:49,300
approach to the analysis is the way what
you see

1804
02:20:49,300 --> 02:20:51,400
and what you think about that.

1805
02:20:52,000 --> 02:20:58,860
What looks bullish does not necessarily
is bullish. What looks extremely bearish

1806
02:20:58,860 --> 02:21:01,160
is not necessarily too bearish.

1807
02:21:01,440 --> 02:21:07,360
And this chart, it just has so many
examples of this type of dilemma.

1808
02:21:07,940 --> 02:21:13,020
Okay, well, we've seen that, again, the
up thrust suggesting a move to the

1809
02:21:13,020 --> 02:21:18,770
downside. In this case, I would say that
probably better reaction than what

1810
02:21:18,770 --> 02:21:20,790
we've seen on SWIN 38.

1811
02:21:21,790 --> 02:21:26,210
Why? Well, because this bar had some
demand signature behind it.

1812
02:21:26,450 --> 02:21:28,290
This bar does not have demand.

1813
02:21:29,890 --> 02:21:33,970
And therefore, we would be thinking that
there's going to be a continuation to

1814
02:21:33,970 --> 02:21:39,710
the downside, maybe into the area of the
previous low, maybe another higher low,

1815
02:21:39,810 --> 02:21:44,710
but this reaction should be a little bit
better than the previous reaction.

1816
02:21:48,080 --> 02:21:49,420
Okay, well maybe so.

1817
02:21:49,640 --> 02:21:54,340
Yeah, I would say so. Yeah, this bar
also kind of like defined. We might not

1818
02:21:54,340 --> 02:21:55,500
even done with this reaction.

1819
02:21:56,000 --> 02:21:59,340
But a high, a low, big spread.

1820
02:22:00,160 --> 02:22:01,720
Here is a diminishing spread.

1821
02:22:01,940 --> 02:22:03,560
Here is the spread is increasing.

1822
02:22:03,920 --> 02:22:05,800
And look at the volume signature.

1823
02:22:07,460 --> 02:22:11,640
Now finally we have that synchronicity.
So I would say that this is the first

1824
02:22:11,640 --> 02:22:15,000
time when the volume signature supply is
increasing.

1825
02:22:15,900 --> 02:22:19,140
and the result is slightly increasing,
but increasing.

1826
02:22:20,100 --> 02:22:26,740
So that slight increase of the result,
and maybe close, a bind into the

1827
02:22:26,740 --> 02:22:32,060
close, bind into the close here, still
might suggest a retest, still might

1828
02:22:32,060 --> 02:22:36,200
suggest maybe some kind of rally into
this high, maybe into this high right

1829
02:22:36,200 --> 02:22:40,820
here, some kind of test, and then a
final capitulation.

1830
02:22:41,200 --> 02:22:42,640
So it's right here.

1831
02:22:44,080 --> 02:22:46,080
This is the spot for us to enter.

1832
02:22:46,500 --> 02:22:49,060
This is the spot for us to enter on the
breakout.

1833
02:22:49,840 --> 02:22:56,200
Maybe this is the spot where we might
have a major sign of weakness,

1834
02:22:56,400 --> 02:23:02,160
LPSY, and we want to enter. So maybe
like three spots where we could enter.

1835
02:23:03,460 --> 02:23:07,820
And then if the price is going to start
going down, think about all of the

1836
02:23:07,820 --> 02:23:10,520
institutions that are still in this
position. What are they going to do?

1837
02:23:10,880 --> 02:23:12,000
They're going to capitulate.

1838
02:23:13,160 --> 02:23:16,580
The velocity should increase on this
move to the upside.

1839
02:23:16,980 --> 02:23:23,780
Momentum should increase on this move to
the downside because institutions

1840
02:23:23,780 --> 02:23:30,280
are going to capitulate and there should
be some kind of big bars,

1841
02:23:30,420 --> 02:23:36,000
especially somewhere in this area right
here where we see that capitulation.

1842
02:23:36,320 --> 02:23:42,200
It should be a big bar to the downside
and the volume signature should be high.

1843
02:23:43,630 --> 02:23:46,970
Okay, well, let's see if we could
execute the strategy.

1844
02:23:47,950 --> 02:23:50,830
Okay, a test comes at 42.

1845
02:23:52,610 --> 02:23:59,510
Between 42, we are committing above the
short -term resistance, but we

1846
02:23:59,510 --> 02:24:01,530
can't overcome the long -term
resistance.

1847
02:24:02,030 --> 02:24:08,670
And then the next up bar closes lower,
even though we tried to

1848
02:24:08,670 --> 02:24:12,190
go higher. And then...

1849
02:24:12,540 --> 02:24:18,820
adjust the continuation to the downside
another higher low the volume signature

1850
02:24:18,820 --> 02:24:24,660
diminishes you know if we would be
comparing it like this uh but look at

1851
02:24:24,660 --> 02:24:30,800
demand so look at all of this latest
rally swing number 40

1852
02:24:30,800 --> 02:24:37,800
swing number 42 swing number 44 if the
price is to reverse here and

1853
02:24:37,800 --> 02:24:38,960
this is the end of the swing

1854
02:24:39,690 --> 02:24:42,110
then what are we seeing with the result
to the upside?

1855
02:24:43,850 --> 02:24:50,110
Diminishment. And that happens on what?
On what kind of demand signature?

1856
02:24:51,390 --> 02:24:54,070
Very mediocre average demand.

1857
02:24:56,630 --> 02:25:00,050
So that suggests that demand is in weak
hands.

1858
02:25:01,250 --> 02:25:04,750
And we saw the first synchronicity.

1859
02:25:09,640 --> 02:25:12,580
between downward effort and downward
result.

1860
02:25:13,460 --> 02:25:17,060
So this probably is acting more as a
test as we thought.

1861
02:25:17,420 --> 02:25:23,620
So any type of again, you know, failure
here, we want to get in, break out, we

1862
02:25:23,620 --> 02:25:27,640
want to get in, break out, we want to
get in, and then some kind of last point

1863
02:25:27,640 --> 02:25:29,080
of supply we want to get in.

1864
02:25:31,880 --> 02:25:35,800
Okay, so here is this bar on the
intraday. We could open a position right

1865
02:25:35,900 --> 02:25:40,600
This could be our first point of entry
to the downside, second point of entry,

1866
02:25:41,000 --> 02:25:42,520
third point of entry.

1867
02:25:44,140 --> 02:25:48,440
And here we would be thinking that all
of the stop losses will be here. So you

1868
02:25:48,440 --> 02:25:51,100
just have to scale in correctly into
this position.

1869
02:25:53,300 --> 02:25:57,400
Okay, let's see what happens next. And
obviously, again, synchronicity for the

1870
02:25:57,400 --> 02:25:58,540
second time.

1871
02:25:59,160 --> 02:26:03,900
We have everything synced, effort and
the result to the downside. So this

1872
02:26:03,900 --> 02:26:10,180
now more as a top information where we
had higher highs, higher lows

1873
02:26:10,180 --> 02:26:15,840
environments, and now we're having lower
highs, lower lows environment.

1874
02:26:17,840 --> 02:26:20,720
A change of behavior, a change of
character.

1875
02:26:21,560 --> 02:26:25,300
Increasing volume signature, increasing
supply, increasing result to the

1876
02:26:25,300 --> 02:26:26,300
downside.

1877
02:26:27,020 --> 02:26:28,020
Distribution.

1878
02:26:30,790 --> 02:26:31,990
And here we are.

1879
02:26:32,490 --> 02:26:37,530
Okay, so our points of entry are going
to be here, here, here.

1880
02:26:38,470 --> 02:26:43,910
Sign of weakness, LPSY, very quick, just
because the capitulation happened so

1881
02:26:43,910 --> 02:26:46,270
quick. And look at this volume
signature.

1882
02:26:46,570 --> 02:26:52,330
This bar, because of this bar right
here, this bar actually was the largest

1883
02:26:52,330 --> 02:26:57,310
supply. So this is where, in this area
right here, this is where the

1884
02:26:57,310 --> 02:26:58,930
institutional capitulation happens.

1885
02:26:59,940 --> 02:27:04,260
Those late institutions that they are
realizing that that's it, the party is

1886
02:27:04,260 --> 02:27:07,160
over, and they need to get out of this
position.

1887
02:27:07,740 --> 02:27:12,760
Please note, when we say institutions
are capitulating, it sounds kind of like

1888
02:27:12,760 --> 02:27:13,920
little bit negative, right?

1889
02:27:14,200 --> 02:27:19,540
But in reality, they are making money
there because a lot of them got in right

1890
02:27:19,540 --> 02:27:20,540
here.

1891
02:27:20,820 --> 02:27:22,280
So this is their trade.

1892
02:27:22,580 --> 02:27:27,580
And it's still probably in the hundreds
percent.

1893
02:27:28,030 --> 02:27:33,110
probably like two to 300 % that they
made here on this trade.

1894
02:27:33,430 --> 02:27:40,130
And obviously, different axes would
define different profitability,

1895
02:27:40,130 --> 02:27:46,250
efficiency, and so on and so forth. But
even here, people are still making money

1896
02:27:46,250 --> 02:27:47,310
on the position.

1897
02:27:48,370 --> 02:27:50,470
All right, guys, that's it.

1898
02:27:50,670 --> 02:27:53,130
Thank God we're done with this exercise.

1899
02:27:53,470 --> 02:27:55,550
Yeah, this is a very long exercise.

1900
02:27:56,410 --> 02:28:02,530
And I'm actually somewhat exhausted, so
why don't we stop here for today, and

1901
02:28:02,530 --> 02:28:06,030
then next class we'll start with the
relative and comparative analysis.

1902
02:28:07,230 --> 02:28:09,730
Homework will be only one homework.

1903
02:28:12,070 --> 02:28:16,930
Please go and re -listen, re -watch all
of the videos of this exercise.

1904
02:28:17,730 --> 02:28:19,970
Make notes, send those notes to me.

1905
02:28:20,370 --> 02:28:24,750
And if you even don't make the notes,
but you have time to do the homework,

1906
02:28:25,640 --> 02:28:27,080
Watch the recordings again.

1907
02:28:27,880 --> 02:28:31,480
Go through all of those even as you
watch.

1908
02:28:33,920 --> 02:28:40,580
Notice the pieces of information that
maybe you have not noticed before.

1909
02:28:40,940 --> 02:28:46,380
Maybe something that was said and your
mind just could not take it all.

1910
02:28:46,640 --> 02:28:53,520
I mean, even today, going through this
whole analysis of this run -up

1911
02:28:53,520 --> 02:28:54,520
and the distribution.

1912
02:28:55,460 --> 02:29:00,920
And as you could see, this case study
could be, of course, on its own. I mean,

1913
02:29:00,940 --> 02:29:06,280
like it's just so long, and it just
makes so much sense to go through the

1914
02:29:06,280 --> 02:29:07,660
price cycle like this.

1915
02:29:10,000 --> 02:29:15,800
But a lot of information, I'm sure, is
lost in your minds. So go re -watch the

1916
02:29:15,800 --> 02:29:21,440
videos, and then the next session is all
going to be devoted to the relative and

1917
02:29:21,440 --> 02:29:22,440
comparative analysis.

1918
02:29:23,360 --> 02:29:27,840
All right, guys, I think that's it for
today. Let's see if we have some kind of

1919
02:29:27,840 --> 02:29:29,480
closing comments, questions.

1920
02:29:30,580 --> 02:29:32,160
Maybe we could address that.

1921
02:29:33,080 --> 02:29:34,080
Then we'll stop.

1922
02:29:34,900 --> 02:29:36,560
I feel like I'm losing my voice.

1923
02:29:41,140 --> 02:29:42,960
Questions, comments?

1924
02:29:49,180 --> 02:29:50,940
Okay, so I don't see anything.

1925
02:29:52,180 --> 02:29:53,180
Okay.

1926
02:29:53,760 --> 02:29:56,260
Okay, it's just some comments. Okay,
great. Thank you, Philip.

1927
02:29:56,700 --> 02:30:03,560
Okay, guys, until next week, and we'll
do

1928
02:30:03,560 --> 02:30:09,760
our relative comparative analysis. We'll
start with the new material.

1929
02:30:10,340 --> 02:30:12,960
Thank you so much, and I'll see you next
week. Thank you, guys.

1930
02:30:13,280 --> 02:30:14,280
Bye -bye.